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Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Mar-02 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower after a false breakout above the minor bearish channel, bottomed at 1.3461 but closed higher at 1.3558. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario. We seem to have a good support around 1.3450 area at this phase and need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 1.3100 this week. A failure to break below that support area and break above 1.3690 area should trigger further bullish correction targeting 1.3750 – 1.3850 area as the bearish momentum may have exhausted. Immediate resistance at 1.3600. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.3690 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, fell below 1.5000 psychological level, bottomed at 1.4779 but closed higher at 1.4925. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 1.4779 area. Another movement above 1.5000 area should lead us into no trading zone testing 1.5200/50 area but overall I think the pressure should remain to the downside. Break below 1.4779 should open the way for further bearish scenario targeting 1.4500 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I am expecting a range area between 89.50 – 88.50 but still within a bearish scenario. Break above 89.50 could trigger further upside correction testing 90.50 area. On the other hand, break below 88.50 could trigger further bearish continuation towards 87.35 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is struggling around the minor trendline support area. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the upside with technical target at 1.1000 this week. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0640 and 1.0507 area. Initial resistance at 1.0900 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.1000 and could be the end of the bearish correction phase.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday, but we had a significant technical movement as price already violated the minor bullish channel indicating potential bullish failure and bearish continuation scenario. However I think the bias is neutral in nearest term as price so far still not able to stay consistently below 120.69 area. We need a consistent move below that area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 119.64 even 117.50 in longer term. Immediate resistance at 121.50 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 132.01 but closed higher at 133.56. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I am in bearish mode for this pair. Immediate resistance at 134.30. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction towards 135.70 but overall the main scenario should remain bearish. Initial support at 132.00 – 131.50 area. Break below that area should continue the bearish scenario targeting 128.80 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I am still expecting a range area of 0.9040 – 0.8910. My technical strategy remains the same, which is to short around 0.9040 or long around 0.8910 with a tight stop loss but I prefer short position. Break below 0.8910 area should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 0.8780 area. On the other hand, break above 0.9040 should be seen as bearish failure targeting 0.9140 area.


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