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Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Mar-09 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3703 but closed lower at 1.3632. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term as price still consolidating. The bullish correction scenario after rejection from 1.3450/30 (triple bottom) remains intact as price still move inside the minor bullish channel with 1.3750 – 1.3850 as corrective target but still in a major bearish scenario. Immediate support at 1.3580 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.3450/35 area but only clear break below 1.3450/35 area can be seen as bearish continuation confirmation targeting 1.3100 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5030 and closed at 1.5064. The bias is neutral in both nearest and medium term but remains bearish in long term view. The fact that price so far still able to move above 1.5000 – 1.4950 support area indicating the bullish correction scenario after bottomed at 1.4779 on March 01 remains intact with technical target around 1.5250 area. Clear break below 1.5000 – 1.4950 area could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.4779 and might put the bullish corrective phase to its end.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY failed to maintain its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 90.13 and closed at 90.29. The bias is neutral in nearest term, but the failure to stay above 90.50 area could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger bearish momentum testing 89.50 area. The bullish correction scenario remains intact but we need a consistent move above 90.50 area to continue bullish momentum targeting 91.50 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, leave us in range area of 1.0888 – 1.0640 area. We have no significant technical movement so far and price still consolidating but still in the context of bullish major scenario. I think the best strategy remains to short around 1.0888 or long around 1.0640 with tight stop loss. Break above 1.0888 – 1.0900 area should continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.1000 while a break below 1.0640 should trigger further bearish correction towards 1.0507 area.


EURJPY Forecast
As you can see on h4 chart below, the EURJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday after rejection to move consistently above the trendline resistance. This fact could produce a false breakout scenario which not only could trigger bearish momentum towards 121.70 area but also a potential threat to the bullish correction scenario. Immediate resistance at 123.50. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure re-testing the trendline resistance. Clear break above the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish scenario targeting 123.15 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish correction momentum yesterday after found resistance at the trendline, as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact not only keep the major bearish scenario intact but could put the bullish correction scenario to its end targeting 134.70 before re-testing 132.00 area. Immediate resistance at 136.50. Break above that area and a violation to the trendline resistance could lead us into a new bullish phase in medium term.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and technical levels to be watched today is 0.9140 and 0.9040. Break on either side can give us a clearer direction towards 0.9326 area or testing the trendline support and 0.8910 area. As long as price stay above the trendline support, the bullish scenario should remain intact.

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