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Thursday, July 1, 2010
Jul-01 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.2304 but closed lower at 1.2234. On h4 chart below we can see that price is struggling around the lower line of the bullish channel indicating intense battle between buyer and seller around that area. The nearest bias remains bearish but note that we need a break below 1.2150/40 support area to end the bullish correction phase at least testing 1.2000 area. On the upside, immediate resistance at 1.2250 followed by 1.2300. Break above 1.2300 should keep the bullish correction scenario intact.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, fell below 1.5000 support area. On daily chart below we can see that price is now testing the minor trendline support indicating critical technical point. Break below that trendline support and consistent move below 1.4900 area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.4800 region and could be a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario. On the upside, another movement back above 1.5000 area should keep the upside medium bias intact re-testing 1.5100 area before testing 1.5200 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday but slipped below 88.23 support area earlier today in Asian session indicating potential further bearishness at least testing 87.35 area before targeting 84.82 in longer term. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but another upside pullback above 88.23 could lead us into neutral area in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another moderate bearish momentum yesterday but slipped below 1.0750 support area earlier today in Asian session. From longer term point of view, consistent move below 1.0750 could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.0500 region, as you can see on my daily chart below. Immediate support (which is also the nearest bearish target) is seen at 1.0600. On the upside, another move back above 1.0750 could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0850 resistance area but the main scenario remains bearish at this phase.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 109.12 but closed lower at 108.19 and keep moving lower around 107.63 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 106.75. Immediate resistance remains around 108.07 region. Another pullback above that area could lead us back into neutral zone as direction is unclear in nearest term re-testing 109.12 area but the main scenario remains to the downside at this phase.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price violated the bullish channel indicating the end of the bullish correction and resume its major bearish scenario at least targeting 129.00 area especially if price able to move below 131.00 region before re-testing 126.75 area. Immediate resistance at 132.80 region. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 0.8550 but closed lower at 0.8405 and keep moving lower below 0.8360 support area earlier today in Asian session at the time I wrote this comment. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.8260 region before challenging 0.8070 area in longer term as bullish scenario has failed. Another pullback above 0.8360 could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stay below 0.8550 the bearish bias should remain intact at this phase.

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