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Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Jul-07 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2661 and closed at 1.2624. This fact opens the door for further upside scenario testing 1.2900 this week but we have bearish potential indicated by CCI divergence as you can see on my h4 chart below so things could be tricky at this phase. Immediate support at 1.2550 region. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback towards 1.2465 area but overall we are still in upside correction phase. On the upside, we need a clear break above 1.2670 region to continue the bullish scenario.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was technically a mess yesterday. Price slipped above the trendline resistance, topped at 1.5226 but closed significantly lower at 1.5148 and now struggling around the trendline resistance. The bias is neutral in nearest term. My wait and see mode is activated now, but as long as price move above the 1.5000 area the upside scenario should remain strong. On the other hand, break below 1.5000 could be a serious threat to the upside correction scenario at least testing 1.4900 area. On the upside, we still need a consistent move above 1.5200 area to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.5400 – 1.5500.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was technically a mess yesterday. Price slipped above the descending triangle but failed to continue bullish momentum and now back inside the triangle. This fact should keep the bearish scenario intact especially if price break below the triangle, confirms the bearish continuation testing 85.86 area. On the upside, immediate resistance remains at 88.23. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 89.00 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0561 but rebounded to the upside, traded around 1.0620 at the time I wrote this comment earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a strong major bearish scenario. On h4 chart below we have a descending triangle indicating potential bearish continuation especially if price able to break below the triangle testing 1.0500 before targeting 1.0220 in longer term view. On the other hand, violation to the upside of the triangle could trigger further upside recovery testing 1.0750 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 109.14 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 110.84 and closed at 110.48. On daily chart below we can see that price slipped above the falling wedge formation indicating potential bullish reversal scenario at least testing 111.70 area. On the downside, another movement back below the falling wedge formation could lead us into neutral zone. Immediate support at 109.90 followed by 109.14 (yesterday’s low).

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. On daily chart below we can see price still moving inside the triangle. The bias is neutral in nearest term but CCI about to cross the -100 line down on daily chart suggesting more downside probability especially if price break below the triangle, testing 130.50 area. Immediate resistance at 134.40. Break above that area could trigger further bullish scenario towards 136.00 before testing 138.00 area.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a strong bullish momentum yesterday, but still unable to move consistently above 0.8550 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we need consistent move above 0.8550 to continue the bullish pressure testing 0.8650 and the minor trendline resistance area (red). Immediate support at 0.8430/50 region. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure re-testing 0.8316.

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