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Thursday, August 5, 2010
Aug-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3131 and closed at 1.3160. Technically this is just a normal correction for me and we may see further downside pullback, but the major scenario remains strongly bullish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.3105. Break below that area could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.3045/00 region. Initial resistance at the minor trendline resistance (white) and around 1.3200 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3260 before targeting 1.3340. My fundamental focus remains on the US NFP tomorrow and like I said yesterday, price behavior could be a little bit more unpredictable so I won’t rush jump into the market.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was also corrected lower yesterday and that was not a surprise for me. Like the trend, correction is a natural market condition and we may see further downside pullback. Immediate support remain at 1.5850/15 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5735. Initial resistance at 1.5966. We need a clear break above that area to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6000/50 before targeting 1.6150. My fundamental focus remains on the US NFP tomorrow and like I said yesterday, price behavior could be a little bit more unpredictable so I won’t rush jump into the market.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday. As you can see on my h1 chart below, we have a strong bullish candle after price break above the minor trendline resistance (blue) and 85.96 resistance (now support). The bias is neutral in nearest term but the major scenario remains bearish. Immediate resistance at 86.87. Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing the major trendline resistance (white). On the downside, another movement below 85.96 could trigger further downside attempt re-testing 85.30 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above the major bearish channel and 1.0500 which could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario at least in medium term testing 1.0675 area but the long term trend remains bearish. On the downside, another consistent move below 1.0500 could trigger further downside pressure testing 0.0399 strong support area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 112.70 but closed higher at 113.53. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but as long as price still move inside the bullish channel, we are still in upside correction phase. Immediate support remains around 112.70. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 111.50 and the lower line of the bullish channel. On the upside, clear break above 114.10 and the trendline resistance (blue) could trigger further bullish momentum testing 114.73 before targeting 115.50 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY also attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 135.83 but closed higher at 137.01. As you can see on my h4 chart below, the lower line of the bullish channel did a good job preventing further bearish attack, keep the upside correction scenario intact. Immediate support remains at the lower line of the bullish channel and 136.13 (23,6% Fibo retracement of 130.83 – 137.76). Break below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario testing 135.13 (38.2% Fibo retracement of 130.83 – 137.76). On the upside, we need a break above 137.76 to continue the bullish correction testing 139.50.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and the major scenario remains bullish, but as long as the rising wedge exist, I will stand aside. I don’t care if it takes a week or even more without a single position. Immediate support at 0.9040. Break below that area will confirm the bearish reversal scenario testing 0.8858 key support area. On the upside, initial resistance which is also the nearest bullish technical target remains around 0.9230 region.

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