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Friday, July 30, 2010
Jul-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD finally made a clear break above 1.3000 resistance yesterday, topped at 1.3106 but closed a little bit lower at 1.03075. This fact could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3213/70 region before testing 1.3340. However, as you can see on my daily chart below, we have a trendline resistance which is located around 1.3120 that need to be broken to the upside before continue the bullish pressure. Immediate support at 1.3045/20 region. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2950/30 support area but overall we are still in strong upside phase and I still prefer buy on dips.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but still within a strong bullish context. Immediate support at 1.5580 area. Consistent move below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.5470 key support level but I still prefer to buy on dips as long as price move inside the bullish channel. On the upside, a clear break above 1.5685 resistance area could trigger further upside pressure targeting 1.5750/60 before testing 1.5815.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum after break below my trendline support and now seems ready to test 86.33/25 key support area. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 85.86 even 84.82 region. However, we know that 86.33/25 region could be a strong support at this phase. Not to mention that we also have a falling wedge formation as a bullish warning. A failure to break below 86.33/25 and a break above the falling wedge could trigger another upside pullback testing 87.00/50 resistance area, but the main scenario remains bearish.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum after break below 1.0560/40 yesterday, slipped below 1.0399 and now struggling around that area. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0320 before testing 1.0220 especially if price able to move consistently below 1.0399. immediate resistance at 1.0500. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone but the main scenario remains bearish and I still prefer to short on rallies.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday but we had some bearish pressure earlier today in Asian session and price is now back below 113.50. The way I see it, it is a false breakout which potentially trigger a bearish pressure testing the trendline support (white) and 111.60/50 support area especially if price consistently move below 112.70/60 support area. However from a longer term perspective this fact lead us back into range and neutral area of 113.50 – 108.07.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, back below the range area and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session. We have a false breakout scenario here which usually trigger a bearish pressure testing 133.70 area even could push price lower testing 130.50 in longer term. Only another movement above 136.30 could potentially continue the bullish correction scenario.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9042 and closed at 0.9003. The main scenario remains bullish but as long as we have the rising wedge formation I will keep out from the market. The rising wedge formation is a bearish warning that I don’t want to ignore. Immediate resistance which also the nearest term bullish targets is seen at 0.9070 and 0.9135 area. On the downside, initial support remains at 0.8858.

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