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Friday, July 9, 2010
Jul-09 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2710 and closed at 1.2696. This fact should keep the upside correction scenario intact at least testing 1.2750 and 1.2850 – 1.2900 area. However, as you can see on my h1 chart below, we have a rising wedge formation indicating potential bearish pullback especially if price break below the rising wedge. Although we are still in upside correction phase, this formation could be a trap, so I think I will stand aside for now. Immediate support at 1.2605 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2465.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday after able to move consistently above the falling wedge, topped at 112.50 and closed at 112.15. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 113.50 area. Immediate support at 112.00 – 111.50 area. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone and activate my wait and see mode in nearest term but note that the breakout above the falling wedge has confirmed the bullish correction/reversal scenario at this phase.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price has been moving in a range area of 1.5227 – 1.5080 this week. We are still in bullish correction phase but need a clear breakout from the range area to continue the bullish pressure testing 1.5400 – 1.5500. On the other hand, break below 1.5080 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5000 key support area and could be a serious threat to the upside correction scenario.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday after move above 88.23 area. As you can see on my daily chart below, we have an interesting relation between 88.23 and the CCI, where every time price found support around 88.23 and CCI cross the -100 line up, price rebounded significantly to the upside. In current context, the nearest upside target is seen around 89.50 area. Only a movement back below 88.23 could trigger further bearish pressure in nearest term. However, note that the major scenario remains bearish.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The main scenario remains bearish but we need a consistent move below 1.0500 area to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.0400 before targeting 1.0220 region. On the upside, important resistance at 1.0750. As long as price stay below that area, I still prefer a bearish scenario with short on rallies strategy.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY slipped above the triangle yesterday but now move back inside the triangle. As you can see on my daily chart below, price is now re-testing the upper line of the triangle. We need a clear break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Break above the triangle could trigger further upside pressure testing 136.00 area. The current bias is more to the upside so I am expecting an upside scenario. On the other hand, a break below the triangle could trigger further bearish pressure testing 131.25.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.8790 and closed at 0.8773. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.8858 area before targeting 0.8930. Price has been moving strong bullish momentum in three consecutive days so any downside pullback should not be a surprise. Immediate support at 0.8700 – 0.8650 area.

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