Sept-09 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

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Friday, September 10, 2010

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD slipped below my trend line support earlier today in Asian session as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact could be seen as the end of technical bullish correction and trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2588 and 1.2523 region. Immediate resistance at 1.2700. Break above that area and a movement back above the trend line support could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear even could produce a false breakdown scenario which could trigger upside pressure testing 1.2764 (yesterday’s high). Fundamental focus today is on French Industrial Production. A disappointing result could push the pair lower. On the other hand, a good result could give support to the Euro but overall I think Euro zone is still in negative territory and the major scenario remains to the downside.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD also had a significant technical move earlier today in Asian session, slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5340 and 1.5296 as the bullish correction could end here, especially if break below 1.5370. Another movement back inside the bullish channel could lead us into neutral zone as direction would become unclear, produce a false breakdown scenario and keep the bullish correction intact re-testing 1.5475 and 1.5531. Fundamental focus today is on the UK PPI Input. A disappointing result could push the pair lower. On the other hand, a good result could give support to the Sterling but overall the major scenario remains bearish.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 83.49 but closed higher at 83.77 and keep moving higher earlier today in Asian session, hit 84.28. Like I said yesterday, the rejection from 83.35 historical level could produce bearish exhaustion and price is making a new bullish channel after rebound from that support. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 84.82 and the trend line resistance. Break above that area could be seen as a beginning of a new bullish phase at least in nearest term. On the downside, only a break below 83.35 could continue the bearish scenario.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bearish pressure was stopped and corrected higher yesterday, as I had expected. Earlier today in Asian session, as you can see on my h4 chart below, price continue the upside pressure, break above the trend line resistance indicating potential bullish reversal scenario at least in nearest term testing 1.0302. Immediate support at 1.0130. Break below that area and a consistent move back below the trend line resistance could produce a false break out scenario and continue the bearish view re-testing 1.0060/30 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made another insignificant movement yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving inside a triangle formation indicating consolidation. Break above the triangle could trigger further upside momentum testing 170.50 while break below the triangle could continue the bearish scenario re-testing 105.43 region and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement so far, but as you can see on my h4 chart below price is now testing the upper line of the falling wedge formation. Break above the formation could trigger further upside pressure testing 131.00 before testing the upper line of the major bearish channel. Immediate support at 128.56 (yesterday’s low) followed by 128.00 region. Overall, as long as price move inside the bearish channel the main scenario remains bearish.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD unable to move consistently above 0.9220 area so far. The major scenario remains bullish but a movement below 0.9220 could trigger further bearish correction testing 0.9160, but only a break below 0.9040 and a violation the the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook. On the upside, consistent move above 0.9220 could trigger further upside momentum targeting 0.9324 – 0.9381.

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