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Thursday, September 2, 2010
Sept-02 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2854 and closed at 1.2807 after price break above the triangle. Positive data from China and Australia trigger risk appetite and hurt the Dollar. The “head and shoulders” bearish scenario remains intact but clearly under heavy pressure as price is now move above the neckline (1.2700). A new trend line resistance (yellow) is drawn as a result of yesterday’s price action. Break above that trend line and 1.2854 could trigger further upside pressure testing the right shoulder of the H&S formation around 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potential bullish reversal scenario. On the downside, I think we need another move below 1.2700 to see further bearish pressure.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was corrected higher yesterday on broad Dollar weakness, topped at 1.5489 and closed at 1.5451. The major bearish scenario remains intact but I think we could have another potential upside correction testing the trend line resistance (red) and 1.5525 – 1.5575 area especially if price break above 1.5489. Immediate support at 1.5385. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.5326 before targeting 1.5250 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 83.67 but further bearish pressure was rejected and closed higher at 84.43. Potential range area at 84.82 – 83.59 but still within a major bearish scenario. Break above 84.82 could trigger further upside pressure but only a move above the trend line resistance could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0065 but closed higher at 1.0156 and keep moving higher around 1.0175 at the time I wrote this comment. On daily chart below we can see that although yesterday’s price action not really made a hammer candle stick formation for potential upside pullback, but the fact that price is now back above 1.0130 could trigger further upside correction testing 1.0220 area as bearish pressure may have exhausted. Break above 1.0220 could trigger further upside momentum testing the trend line resistance (red). The major scenario remains bearish but we need a consistent move below 1.0130 to see further bearish pressure testing 1.0030.



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