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Monday, August 23, 2010
Aug-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish pressure on Friday, slipped below the major bullish channel and 1.2700 key support area, bottomed at 1.2664 but rebounded to the upside and traded above 1.2700 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a consistent move below 1.2700 to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.2610 before testing 1.2500 – 1.2470. Fundamental focus will be on some Euro zone flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers today. If we have good numbers, potential resistance to be tested is at 1.2780 and 1.2930 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD slipped below 1.5500 on Friday, but closed higher at 1.5531 and keep moving higher around 1.5660 earlier today in Asian session at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the fact that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside could set up a bearish view testing 1.5380. Immediate resistance at 1.5590. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.5680 – 1.5700 area but I prefer a short on rallies at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY still consolidating so far in range area of 86.25 – 84.82/73 with no significant technical move. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and the major scenario remains to the downside but we need a clear break below 84.82/73 key support area to continue the bearish scenario testing 83.35. On the upside, the trendline resistance remains my key resistance area at this phase. Break above that trendline could diminish the bearish outlook testing 87.00/50 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bearish momentum was paused on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stay below 1.0350 the pressure should more to the downside testing 1.0220 region. Immediate resistance at 1.0392 (Friday’s high). Break above that area could lead us back to neutral zone and range market testing 1.0450 – 1.0500 resistance area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 108.25 but closed a little bit higher at 108.83. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 108.07 – 107.30. Immediate resistance at 109.20. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone but the main scenario remains bearish and I prefer short on rallies at this phase.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 131.98 but closed significantly higher at 133.01. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a major bearish scenario testing 130.83 especially if price able to move consistently below 132.00. Immediate resistance at 133.75 and the upper line of the minor bearish channel. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 134.80 but the main scenario remains to the downside as long as price still move inside the major bearish channel.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD slipped below 0.8858 key support area on Friday but further bearish pressure was rejected as price closed significantly higher at 0.8920. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The bullish scenario is in serious threat but unless we have a consistent move below 0.8858, the bullish scenario should remain intact. Immediate resistance at 0.8966 followed by 0.9040. A movement above 0.9040 could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9145 and keep the bullish scenario alive and kicking. Below 0.8858, bearish target is seen around 0.8715 area.

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