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Monday, August 9, 2010
Aug-09 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday after worse than expected US NFP number. On h4 chart below we have an ascending triangle that has been violated to the upside indicating potential further bullish pressure testing 1.3400/20 especially if price able to move consistently above 1.3340. On the other hand, a movement back inside the ascending triangle and below 1.3250 support area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3150/60 but the major scenario remains to the upside with 1.3585 – 1.3650 as weekly target.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD slipped above 1.5966 on Friday after worse than expected US NFP, topped at 1.5997 but now struggling around 1.5966. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the context of strong bullish phase. We need a consistent move above 1.5966 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.6050 and 1.6150 area. Immediate support at 1.5900. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.5850/15 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 85.02 but was traded higher earlier today in Asian session around 85.43 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the context of a major bearish scenario targeting 84.82 before testing 83.35 (June 1995 low). Immediate resistance at 85.96 and the minor trendline resistance (blue). Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 86.40/50 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish scenario on Friday after a worse than expected US NFP number. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0220 especially if price able to move consistently below 1.0350. Immediate resistance at 1.0450. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone as direction is unclear testing 1.0500 but the main scenario remains to the downside.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 112.58 but closed higher at 113.50. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. We are still in upside correction scenario as price still moving inside the bullish channel but price is making lower highs from 114.73 indicating a weak bullish pressure so far. Consistent move below 112.70 support area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 112.02 and the lower line of the bullish channel. On the upside, we need a clear break above the minor trendline resistance (blue) to continue the upside correction scenario testing 115.50.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive on Friday. On h1 chart below we can see price is now making a new bearish channel after unable to break above 137.70/50 region which is a potential top at this phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 135.50 followed by 134.25. On the upside, a violation to the minor bearish channel could trigger further upside pressure testing 137.70/50. Consistent move above that area could continue the bullish correction phase testing 139.50 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement on Friday. In fact, price has been indecisive since Tuesday last week. This is what usually happen when we have a rising wedge formation, consolidation in narrow range. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but the major bullish scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 0.9130. Break below that area could be considered also as break below the rising wedge which could trigger further downside scenario testing 0.9040 before testing 0.8858. On the upside, we need a break above 0.9220 to continue the bullish pressure testing 0.9324 area.

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