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Friday, August 6, 2010
Aug-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but still within a strong technical bullish context. Immediate support remains around 1.3105 area. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.3045/00 region. On the upside we need a consistent move above 1.3200 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.3260 before targeting 1.3340. We will have US NFP data today. The number is expected to be a good one, forecast around -63K which is about 62K better than the previous (-125K). If the actual number is better than forecast, the pair could continue its bearish correction. On the other hand, if the actual number is worse than expected, price may resume its bullish scenario. But whatever the result, usually market will be very volatile during this data release.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was also volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but still within a strong technical bullish context. Immediate support at 1.5815 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5735. On the upside we still need a clear break above 1.5966 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6000/50 before targeting 1.6150. We will have US NFP data today. The number is expected to be a good one, forecast around -63K which is about 62K better than the previous (-125K). If the actual number is better than forecast, the pair could continue its bearish correction. On the other hand, if the actual number is worse than expected, price may resume its bullish scenario. But whatever the result, usually market will be very volatile during this data release.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. The short term bullish momentum unable to reach 86.87 before bottomed at 85.70 and closed at 85.83. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains bearish. Price is now struggling around 85.96 support area but we need a consistent move below that area to continue the bearish pressure testing 85.32. Immediate resistance at the minor trendline resistance (blue) and 86.30/45. Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 86.87 before testing the major trendline resistance (white) and 87.30/50 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. The bias is unclear in nearest term and we are in no trade zone now. As you can see on my daily chart below, price has been moving in range area of 1.0675 – 1.0350 since June 2010 after significant bearish momentum indicating consolidation but the main scenario remains bearish. We need a break from that range area to see clearer direction. Aggressive traders may long around 1.0350 or short around 1.0675 with tight stop loss.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but we are still in bullish correction phase as long as price move inside the bullish channel but need a clear break above the minor trendline resistance (blue) and 114.10 to resume its bullish pressure testing 114.73 and 115.50. Immediate support at 112.70 which is a strong short term support. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 111.50 area and could be a serious threat to the upside correction scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. Although we haven’t see significant bearish pressure so far, this fact is a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario testing 134.50 region as we may have a triple top formation around 137.50/70. Only break above that area could continue the bullish correction testing 139.50.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday. One of the nature of price movement inside the rising wedge formation is the volume is getting smaller, but a break from the formation is become closer and a significant movement will be expected. This condition is boring, I know. But I prefer to trade other pairs. Discipline and patient are more important than any technical/fundamental knowledge. We are still in a major bullish scenario so I am expecting a break above the formation. Expected range at 0.9040 – 0.9220/30.

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