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Friday, August 20, 2010
Aug-20 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.2772 but dragged higher after Sterling strengthen against Dollar on better than expected UK retail sales number, topped at 1.2902 and closed lower at 1.2821, still in volatile but indecisive market. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving inside a triangle indicating consolidation so far. The major bullish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the major bullish channel. Break to the upside of the triangle and 1.2930 resistance area could trigger further recovery testing 1.3000. Immediate support at 1.2700/35 area. Break below that area could be a serious threat the the bullish outlook.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5508 but again, positive fundamental data, good retail sales number denied further bearish pressure and push Cable to the upside, up more than 100 pips just in the first 30 minutes after the data release, topped at 1.5670 and closed lower at 1.5599, formed another Doji on daily chart indicating another indecisive market. On h4 chart below we can see price has been moving in range area of 1.5700 – 1.5500 indicating consolidation since August 12. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction. Break above 1.5700 could trigger further upside recovery testing 1.5820 while break below 1.5500 could confirm the bearish reversal scenario at least testing 1.5450 – 1.5380 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and there are no significant technical moves so far. Expected range remains at 86.25 – 84.82/73 but still within major bearish scenario which need a clear break below 84.82/73 to continue the bearish scenario testing 83.35. On the upside, the trendline resistance remains my key resistance area at this phase. Break above that trendline could diminish the bearish outlook testing 87.00/50 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a significant move yesterday, break below 1.0350 key support area, bottomed at 1.0258 but closed higher at 1.0318. This fact could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.0220 but another move above 1.0350 could lead us back to range area and neutral zone testing 1.0450 – 1.0500. Below 1.0220, the next bearish target is seen around 1.0130.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower but still unable to move consistently below 109.20 strong support area so far. The bias is remains neutral in nearest term but still within the major bearish scenario. Clear break below 109.20 could trigger further downside pressure testing 108.07 – 107.30. Immediate resistance at 110.12 (yesterday’s high) followed by 110.70.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday but closed at the opening price formed a Doji on daily chart indicating indecisive movement. I made some adjustments to the minor bearish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a major bearish scenario. Immediate support at 132.50. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 132.00. Initial resistance at 134.50. Break above that area could trigger further upside recovery in the circle area but as long as price move inside the major bearish channel the main scenario remains bearish.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish pressure yesterday, bottomed at 0.8904 and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.8858 key support area. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook even potential bearish reversal scenario at least testing 0.8715 region. Immediate resistance at 0.8965 followed by 0.9040.

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