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Monday, August 16, 2010
Aug-16 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish pressure on Friday, bottomed at 1.2751 and closed at 1.2752. On h1 chart below we can see price seems ready to test the lower line of the bullish channel. Note that as long as the bullish channel hold, the major bullish scenario remains intact and only violation the the bullish channel and movement below 1.2700 key support area could be seen as a serious threat to the bullish outlook testing 1.2605 before targeting 1.2470. Immediate resistance at 1.2790 followed by 1.2850 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 1.5677 but closed lower at 1.5591, slipped below the major bullish channel and 1.5550 key support area earlier today in Asian session but still unable to move below that support area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we are still in bearish correction phase. Consistent move below the bullish channel and 1.5550 area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5450 before testing 1.5380 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5590 followed by 1.5630.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum on Friday, but traded lower earlier today in Asian session around 85.80 after unable to move consistently above 86.25 resistance area. On h4 chart below we can see price is now moving inside new minor bullish channel indicating potential upside correction scenario testing the trendline resistance (white) and 87.00 area but the main trend remains bearish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 85.50. Break below that area could end the upside correction scenario re-testing 84.82.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF is the only major pair that have no clear trend since July 02 as price still consolidating at range area of 1.0675 – 1.0350. I will keep stay away from this pair. Aggressive traders may short around 1.0675 or long around 1.0350 with tight stop loss. CCI in neutral area on daily, h4 and and h1 chart suggesting nothing can be done to this pair for now.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We are still in a major bearish scenario but need a consistent move below 109.20 to continue the bearish pressure testing 108.07 – 107.30 area. Immediate resistance at 110.70 followed by 111.60.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 134.80 and closed at 134.52 but traded significantly lower earlier today in Asian session, hit 133.20 in a volatile market. The major scenario remains bearish as long as price move inside the bearish channel but watch out for potential upside correction scenario in the circled area. We need a consistent move below 132.80 to continue the bearish pressure testing 132.00. Immediate resistance at 134.50 followed by 135.50.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 0.9034 but closed lower at 0.8925 indicating the bearish pressure is not over yet testing 0.8858 key support area. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook and potential bearish reversal scenario which was indicated by the rising wedge formation testing 0.8715. Immediate resistance remains around 0.9040 followed by 0.9145.

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