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Monday, September 20, 2010
Sept-20 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused on Friday after bad US CPI and consumer sentiment numbers triggered risk aversion. Overall we are still in bullish phase but need another break above 1.3120 to continue the upside pressure re-testing 1.3200 and the trend line resistance area. On the downside, immediate support at minor trend line support (white) and 1.3000. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2920.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 1.5728 but closed significantly lower at 1.5629 after bad US CPI and consumer sentiment numbers triggered risk aversion. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. Immediate resistance at 1.5728 (Friday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.5800 even could open the door towards 1.6000 area. Immediate support at the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red) and 1.5625 region. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5531.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We are still in bullish phase but need a clear break above 85.90 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 87.00. Immediate support at 84.82. Only a break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish correction on Friday, bottomed at 1.0067 and closed at 1.0096. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price is moving inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish correction phase. Immediate support at the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.0030 area. Break below that area could end the bullish phase and continue the major bearish scenario testing 0.9931. On the upside, we need another move above 1.0160 to continue the bullish correction testing 1.0277.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We are still in bullish phase but need a break above 112.35 to continue the bullish pressure re-testing 113.00/30 region. On the downside, immediate support at 111.60. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 111.10 – 110.60 region but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 135.03 but closed lower at 134.17. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On daily chart below we have a falling wedge formation which has been broken to the upside indicates potential bullish scenario. Potential range area between 136.00 – 133.00. I still prefer a bullish bias at this phase but need a break above 135.03 to continue the bullish pressure towards 136.00.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 0.9467 but closed significantly lower at 0.9360 and traded around 0.9400 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 0.9467 – 0.9330. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction. We are still in strong bullish phase here so I prefer a bullish scenario and expect break above 0.9467 targeting 0.9506 before testing 0.9849 in longer term view.

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