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Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Nov-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.3359 and closed at 1.3385. Good Euro zone manufacturing and services PMI numbers only gave minor upside pullback and failed to stop the bearish pressure. This fact could trigger further weakness for the single currency. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.3333. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3260 and the lower line of the major bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below which could be a threat to the long term bullish outlook. However note that at the same time the lower line of the major bullish channel could provide a good support area. Immediate resistance at 1.3446. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3500 – 1.3550 but overall we are still in strong bearish phase.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the major bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below, bottomed at 1.5758 and closed at 1.5798. Like I said, a violation to the bullish channel could be an early signal of a new bearish phase in long term outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.5650 especially if price make another strong break below 1.5750. Immediate resistance at 1.5875. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5950 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish phase.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday made a Doji on daily chart. This short term volatility which probably triggered by the Korean conflict reflects no significant technical movement and price still trapped in range area of 82.84 – 83.70 and there are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we need a break on either side to see clearer direction. A clear break above 83.70 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 84.70 while a break below 82.84 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday after found support around 0.9850, topped at 0.9974 and closed at 0.9965. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.0000 targeting 1.0182 area. Immediate support at 0.9920/00. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and keep us in range market of 1.0000 – 0.9850.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 111.60 and bottomed at 110.74 which suggests potential bearish outlook. However, pay attention to the hammer candle stick formation as you can see on my h4 chart below which could be a signal of a bearish exhaustion and some upside rebound. This fact force me to wait for a clear break below 110.74 to confirm the bearish scenario testing 109.70/60 region. On the upside, another movement back above 111.60 would lead us back to neutral zone testing 112.20/80 resistance area and keep us in range market condition.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact should be considered as bullish failure and potential new bearish phase. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another strong break below 130.84 targeting 129.83. Immediate resistance at 132.00. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 133.00 and activates my wait and see mode.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 0.9750 but had upside rebound earlier today in Asian session hit 0.9806. The Korean conflict may trigger further volatility both in stock and currency movement in Asian and Australian market but technical bearish reversal scenario remains valid especially if price move back below 0.9750 targeting 0.9650 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9810. Clear break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 0.9881 – 0.9950 resistance area.

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