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Thursday, March 5, 2009
Mar-05 market commentary and technical levels

Thu, 05th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD was corrected higher yesterday. The pair slipped under 1.2500 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.2661 and closed at 1.2659. On 4h chart we can see that the pair is corrected higher back toward 23.6% Fibo retracement area, which is also a potential double top formation. It seems like we have a tricky situation here and it might be caused by the market consolidation ahead of the NFP report on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but remain bearish in longer term. I think it’s better to stay away and wait for further development. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2700 – 1.2750 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing 1.2560 support area. Eyes on Euro Minimum Bid Rate data today.

eurusd4hchart

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2523
  • S2= 1.2387
  • S3= 1.2318
  • R1= 1.2728
  • R2= 1.2797
  • R3= 1.2933

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD also corrected higher yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4195 and closed at 1.4191. On 4h chart we can see that this upside correction is now testing the 23.6% Fibo retracement at 1.4190 area. Break above that level could trigger further upside correction towards 1.4350 area. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and it’s better to stay out from the market. Initial support at 1.4100 followed by 1.4050. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure. Eyes on MPC Rate Statement today.

gbpusd4hchart2

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4051
  • S2= 1.3911
  • S3= 1.3839
  • R1= 1.4263
  • R2= 1.4335
  • R3= 1.4475

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had another bullish momentum yesterday. After break the 98.69 level to the upside, the pair topped at 99.46, closed at 99.13 and seems to consolidate now. The bias is neutral in nearest term but bullish in medium term. Immediate support is seen at 98.69 (former resistance). Initial resistance at 99.50. Break above that level could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 100.50 area. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pullback.

usdjpyhourly3

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 98.34
  • S2= 97.56
  • S3= 97.00
  • R1= 99.68
  • R2= 100.24
  • R3= 101.02

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF was traded lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1669 and closed at 1.1673. On 4h chart we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside at the same time CCI cross -100 line down suggesting a potential downside pressure. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and it’s better to stay away from the market now. Immediate support is seen at 1.1600 area. Initial resistance at 1.1800. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

usdchf4hchart1

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1613
  • S2= 1.1553
  • S3= 1.1437
  • R1= 1.1789
  • R2= 1.1905
  • R3= 1.1965

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