Monday, July 6, 2009
EURUSD Weekly Perspective
by: Mihai Merinascu The big picture in USD pairs hasn’t changed much after the NFP on Thursday, however in short term we have a few levels to watch for signals. Generally on my chart the large daily trend remains bull but we have minor confirmation for retracements down on H4.
Right now on H4 I’m waiting for a short, but in the near-term the active setup is a long with downside limit @1.3950. Above this level will be moderately bullish, however i’m waiting for a more serious trade SHORT either higher up around 1.4080 (after an a-b-c correction) or back below 1.3950.
If the current H4 wave formation confirms the targets will be in the 1.38-1.3660 range, the current support area on D1.
Good luck everyone & have a great week! Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Let me explain the basic principle how most Forex systems work. They are tuned up
to work in a specific market condition. They often make money in a trending
market, but loose money in a choppy market. It is not a problem as long as the
market is trending and the system is making more money than it loses. Such a
system can be profitable for several months and you would be happy with it.
BUT...
PREPARE FOR THE WORST...
Market change over time. A well designed system starts with trend analysis to
stay away from potentially losing trades. There are two problems of how a Forex
system recognizes the trend.
PROBLEM: FALSE "STRONG TREND" INDICATION.
The system responds only to immediate price action. An explosive price movement
that is usually the result of news release is tempting people to jump in and make
a profit. It looks like a "strong trend", but what usually happens next is a hard
fall.
To avoid falling into this trap, check for the SOLUTION to find a REAL trend:
==> http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834
SECOND PROBLEM: TREND RELIABILITY
Most systems use various indicators to determine the trend. Actually, there is
nothing bad about using indicators. One Simply Moving Average can do the job. The
problem comes with the question: "Is the market trending NOW?" Whether the market
is trending or not trending is not like black and white. The correct question is:
"How well the market is trending?"
And here we have something called TREND RELIABILITY.
Trends exist and they can be traded up and down for a profit. You have to focus
only on the most reliable market trends. "Forex Trendy" is a software solution to
find the BEST trending currency pairs, time frames and compute the trend
reliability for each Forex chart:
==> http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834