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Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Mar-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a volatile movement yesterday but still able to maintain its bearish momentum as further upside pressure was rejected at the trendline resistance, closed lower at 1.3494 and keep moving lower around 1.3467 at the time I wrote this comment. We are now in critical technical phase where price ready to test the 1.3450/35 key support area. However, no matter how strong the downside pressure is, I believe we need a consistent and clear movement below 1.3450/35 to confirm further bearish scenario targeting 1.3100 this week. Above 1.3450/35, any upside pullback is still open wide. Immediate resistance at 1.3530 area. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.3600/50 region.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was also volatile yesterday, but still able to maintain its bearish momentum. Price is now ready to make another attempt to break the major trendline support and we need a clear break below that trendline support to continue further bearish scenario targeting 1.4500 area this week. Above the trendline support, any upside pullback is still open wide. Nearest technical bearish target is seen at 1.4873 and 1.4779 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5070 area. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction towards 1.5125/50 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday. Price attempted to push higher, topped at 1.0637 but closed lower at 1.0574. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone. Once again, the 1.0640 resistance area was proved to be a strong resistance keep the bearish correction scenario intact. Unless we have a clear break above that area and violation of the bearish channel, price may go for another downside pressure testing 1.0507 even 1.0420 region as bearish correction scenario should remain intact.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY still consolidating in range area of 89.60 – 91.07 yesterday. We have no significant technical movement yet. The major bearish scenario remains intact as long as price stay below the major trendline resistance, but the bullish correction also still alive and kicking with potential bullish reversal scenario especially if price breakout above the range area and move above the trendline resistance at least testing 93.75 area. On the downside, break below 89.60 should keep the major bearish scenario intact testing 88.50 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I am still in no trading zone for this pair with expected range at 121.50/00 – 123.00 as direction still unclear, but the major outlook after fell from the double top at 123.15/20 area remains bearish. Break below 121.50/00 could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 119.70 key support area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY also indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as you can see on my h4 chart below, after violated the bullish channel price is now still able to move inside the new bearish channel indicating potential bearish outlook. Immediate resistance at 136.50. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 137.30 region and could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook. Initial support at 135.00. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact testing 133.90 even 132.50/00 key support level.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9134 but closed higher at 0.9185. The main bullish scenario remains intact and but we are still consolidating between 0.9250 – 0.9090 area. We need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction, whether price will continue its bullish scenario at least towards 0.9326 – 0.9404 area or break below the trendline support which can be a new beginning of a bearish reversal scenario.

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