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Wednesday, May 5, 2010
May-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday after breakdown from the triangle, bottomed at 1.2981, closed at 1.2988 and keep moving lower around 1.2977 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.2880 – 1.2850 area especially if price continue to push lower and break below 1.2920 support area today. Immediate resistance at 1.3060/50 area. Break above that area could trigger further minor bullish correction testing 1.3130 region but overall the main scenario remains to the downside.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD slipped below 1.5128 yesterday, indicating potential downside scenario. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now struggling around the lower line of the range area around 1.5128. The bullish scenario surely in a serious threat especially if price able to move below 1.5070 area today, targeting 1.5000 psychological level before back towards 1.4779 region as bullish scenario fails. Immediate resistance at 1.5210 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.5290 area and keep the neutral bias in medium term intact and brings us back in range area of 1.5520 – 1.5128 again.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major bullish scenario remains intact but price has a problem to consistently move above 94.70 key level. I think we need a break above 95.10 area to continue the bullish scenario testing 95.50 and 96.70 this week. Immediate support at 94.31 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 94.00 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.1034 and closed at 1.1027 after break above 1.0888 – 1.0923 area yesterday. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.1175 – 1.1250 area especially if price able to break above 1.1095 area today. Immediate support at 1.0950. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.0888 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price has violated the bullish channel indicating potential bearish failure. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 121.40 area especially if price able to consistently move below 122.35 region. Initial resistance at 123.70. Break above that area could trigger further upside momentum testing 124.50 area but that would make the direction unclear and lead us to no trading zone as my technical study would be a mess.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish scenario yesterday. Overall we are still trapped in range area of 141.60 – 145.95 with no clear direction. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I think the best strategy is to long around 141.60 or short around 145.95 with tight stop loss. I don’t want to trade between that area for now.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, by violated the triangle to the downside, bottomed at 0.9082 and closed at 0.9087 indicating potential bullish failure and new bearish phase. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 0.9000 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9140. Another movement above that area could lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

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