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Monday, April 19, 2010
Apr-19 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.3472 and closed at 1.3508. The bullish scenario after price violated the major bearish channel remains intact but clearly has started to lose some momentum. Immediate support at 1.3450/35 area. Consistent move below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.3267 key support area even 1.3100 this week. Initial resistance at 1.3540 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact testing 1.3620 and 1.3691 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made a gap today, opened about 100 pips lower than Friday’s close price. While the bullish scenario is in a serious threat as price violated the bullish channel, gaps are usually filled and big gaps may produce volatile movement without clear technical direction. I think I will stand aside form now. The bias is bearish in nearest term but like I said price may attempt to fill the gap by moving higher towards the lower line of the bullish channel. Immediate support at 1.5202. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5150 region before targeting 1.5000. Initial resistance at 1.5391.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday, break below the bullish channel indicating bullish failure and potential bearish scenario at least in nearest term targeting 91.30 area, but the medium term bias is neutral/unclear. Immediate resistance at 92.50.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish momentum. On daily chart below we can see that price is now back inside the major bullish channel indicating potential false breakdown scenario which not only keep the bullish scenario intact but could trigger significant bullish momentum. However technically this pair is a mess. Immediate resistance at 1.0700. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.0750 even 1.0888 area. Initial support at 1.0550.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday after failed to break above 127.88 resistance area, bottomed at 123.86 and closed at 124.42. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing the lower line of the bullish channel but as long as price still move inside the bullish channel the bullish scenario should remain intact. Immediate support at 122.80. Break below that area could be s serious threat to the bullish scenario. Initial resistance at 124.75.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum on Friday. On daily chart below we can see that price whipsawed to the downside after made a false breakout above 144.70 and now back below the trendline. This fact lead us into a neutral zone in medium term outlook as price still struggling around the trendline without a clear direction but the nearest bias is bearish testing 139.50 area. Immediate resistance at 141.80 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continued its bullish momentum on Friday. On daily chart below we can see that price is now re-testing the upper line of the broadening formation indicating critical technical phase. Although it’s clear that bullish momentum is losing momentum here, as long as price still move above the formation, the bullish scenario should remain intact and only a consistent movement back inside the formation could be seen as a serious threat to the bullish scenario testing 0.9150 – 0.9090 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9280 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact testing 0.9352 region.

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