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Monday, April 5, 2010
April-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum on Friday. The major bearish channel still hold so far indicating the major bearish scenario remains intact but the bullish correction also still intact as price still move inside the minor bullish channel (white channel). We need a violation to one of those channels to see clearer direction. Violation to the bearish channel could be seen as potential bearish failure and a new bullish phase targeting 1.3817 and 1.4000 area while violation to the bullish channel could end the bullish correction phase testing 1.3100 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3569 (March 23 high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.3650 and could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario. Initial support at 1.3450. Break below that area could be seen as the end of the bullish correction and continue the major bearish scenario.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum on Friday after US NFP data, bottomed at 1.5180 and closed at 1.5202 but we have a gap as price opened higher at 1.5265 today in Asian market. Gaps are often filled so price might attempt to go near 1.5202 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum as the Dollar gain on NFP may continue testing 1.5135 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Initial resistance at 1.5380 which is remains a technical bullish target at this phase as bullish scenario remains intact.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 94.69 and closed at 94.54. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 95.50. However CCI already in overbought area and heading down in both h4 and daily chart so watch out for potential minor downside correction. Immediate support at 93.75. As long as price stay above that area I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.0643 and closed at 1.0617. The fact that price still able to move inside the major bullish channel indicating the major bullish scenario remains intact but we need a consistent move above 1.0640 and violation to the minor bearish channel to continue bullish scenario towards 1.0888 even 1.1000 area. Immediate support at 1.0560 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.0420 region and could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive on Friday, formed A Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase with technical target around 128.80 area. Immediate support at 126.96 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 125.95 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement on Friday but the fact that price already break above the major trendline resistance indicating potential bullish reversal scenario at least targeting 145.85 area. Immediate support at 143.60 area. Break below that area and a movement back below the trendline could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger significant bearish momentum testing 142.50/00 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD still made no significant technical movement on Friday. Price still move around the upper line of the broadening formation indicating some hesitation/consolidation. I think I will keep stay away from this pair. Aggressive traders may short around 0.9250 and the upper line area with a tight stop loss as a consistent move above the broadening formation confirms the bullish continuation scenario towards 0.9326 and 0.9404 region. Immediate support at 0.9150/30 area.

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