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Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Mar-31 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3535 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.3395 and closed at 1.3412 after a better than expected US consumer confidence data. Technically this fact could end the bullish correction scenario testing 1.3250 and 1.3100 area. Today we will have unemployment and CPI numbers from the Euro zone. Good results may support the Euro and keep the bullish correction intact testing 1.3535 and 1.3600 region while bad results should trigger further significant drop. Immediate resistance at 1.3450/80 area. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure but as long as price still move inside the bearish channel the main outlook remains bearish. Initial support at 1.3365 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3250.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5124 but closed lower at 1.5067. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We are still in upside correction phase with the upper line of the bearish channel to be tested but the main scenario remains bearish as long as price still move inside the bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.5124 (yesterday’s high). Consistent move above that area could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook. Initial support at 1.5000 – 1.4950. Break below that area could end the bullish correction testing 1.4876 and 1.4779 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was able to maintain its bullish tone yesterday and keep moving higher earlier today in Asian session around 93.20 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 93.75 area before aim for 95.50 region. Immediate support at 92.74 (current low). Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone testing 92.00 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0587 but as you can see on my h4 chart below, the minor trendline support did a good job preventing further bearish pressure and price closed higher at 1.0664. This fact should keep the bullish outlook intact. Immediate support at 1.0640. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear. Initial resistance at 1.0750. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0888 region.


EURJPY Forecast
Yesterday the EURJPY slipped above 125.15, topped at 125.45 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 124.44. This fact lead us back into the range area of 125.15 – 124.00. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The bullish scenario remains intact as price still maintain bullish tone earlier today in Asian session, traded higher around 124.80 at the time I wrote this comment, but we need a consistent move above 125.15 to continue further bullish momentum targeting 126.96.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above 139.34, topped at 140.53 and keep moving higher earlier today in Asian session around 140.40 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 142.00 area and may test the major trendline resistance. Only a movement back below 139.34 could lead us back into no trading zone.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to maintain its bullish momentum and traded lower earlier today in Asian session around 0.9160 at the time I wrote this comment. Price retreat back below the trendline indicating unclear direction as price forms a broadening formation. Expected range at 0.9090 – 0.9250. I prefer to stay away from this pair for now.

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