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Monday, March 29, 2010
Mar-29 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD still maintain its bullish momentum earlier today in Asian market since triggered by hope on solution of Greek debt problem on Friday, slipped above 1.3450 but retreat lower around 1.3430 at the time I wrote this comment. Situation can be very tricky at this phase. The bias is bullish in nearest term. The major bearish scenario remains intact as long as price stay inside the bearish channel but we have potential upside risk. Note that Greek problem responsible for the Euro bearish momentum. So if the market optimism continues to grow and no longer see Greek problem as serious matter, then we have a good reason for bullish reversal scenario, especially if price violate the bearish channel. Immediate support at 1.3400. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact testing 1.3300 – 1.3250 before testing 1.3100. Initial resistance at 1.3480. Break above that area should trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3530 and the upper line of the bearish channel which can be a serious threat to the technical bearish outlook.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD failed to stay consistently below the trendline support, indicating potential false breakdown scenario which could produce significant bullish momentum testing 1.5000/50 region. The trendline support remains the key support area at this phase. Another move below it should keep the bearish scenario testing 1.4500 intact. Immediate support at 1.4891 (current low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.4779 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was indecisive on Friday. I still prefer a bullish scenario with nearest technical target around 93.75 as bullish reversal scenario is now confirmed after price convincingly break above the major trendline resistance (blue). Immediate support at 92.00. Another move below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish momentum on Friday. Earlier today in Asian session, price slipped below 1.0640 support area but retreat to the upside and traded around 1.0680 at the time I wrote this comment. I think we are in no trading zone. The major bullish scenario remains intact as long as price still move inside the bullish channel. Consistent move below 1.0640 should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.0507. Immediate resistance at 1.0750. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact testing 1.0888 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 124.18, closed at 124.04 and keep moving higher around 124.40 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 125.15 area. Immediate support at 124.00. Break below that area lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear but the bullish scenario after bullish running from 121.50 area should remain intact as long as price stay above 123.00 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as you can see on my h4 chart below price still move consistently inside the bullish channel indicating the direction still more to the upside in general testing 139.34 area. Immediate support at 137.30. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 136.65 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.9000, closed higher at 0.9038 and keep retreat higher around 0.9070 at the time I wrote this comment. The bearish scenario after price break below the trendline support remains intact but a break above 0.9090 should lead us into no trading zone with potential resistance to be tested around 0.9140 even back towards 0.9250 region. On the downside, 0.8970 remains key support area at this phase.

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