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Monday, April 12, 2010
Apr-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD jumped higher today, opened at 1.3626 after Greek bailout, made more than 100 pips gap. Although the bearish channel has been violated to the upside by this event and suggest bullish reversal scenario, usually gaps are filled, so we need to stay calm and must not rush. I think I will stand aside for now. Immediate resistance at 1.3700. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.3750 even testing 1.3830 region as the nearest technical bullish reversal target this week. Initial support at 1.3530. Break below that area should raise doubt that the current bullish momentum is just a short term reaction while the bearish scenario should remain intact.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.5389 and closed at 1.5378 and opened higher today at 1.5440, made a gap just like the EURUSD after Greek bailout. However, unlike the EURUSD, my technical outlook on GBPUSD is already bullish so I am still in bullish mode for this pair targeting 1.5550 today. Immediate support at 1.5380. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but overall the scenario should remain to the upside.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempt to push higher on Friday, but failed to make a clear break above 93.75 and traded lower around 93.25 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should keep the bearish correction scenario intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The main scenario should remain bullish but we need a consistent move above 93.75 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 95.50 area. Immediate support at 92.50/00 area which is the bearish correction technical target.


USDCHF Forecast
Like the EURUSD, the USDCHF made a gap today, opened more than 100 pips lower than close price on Friday. On daily chart below we can see that price is now struggling around the lower line of the major bullish channel indicating critical technical phase. Consistent move below the bullish channel could be seen as a serious threat to the major bullish scenario and a beginning of a new bearish phase at least testing 1.0420 area. Immediate resistance at 1.0640. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY jumped higher today, made more than 100 pips gap from close price on Friday. Usually gaps are filled especially if it goes against the trend. However in this case, the gap goes to the same direction with the trend. Although I think the bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 127.88, I don’t like big gaps, so I will stay away for now. Immediate support at 126.50. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 125.95 area. On the upside, break above 127.88 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 128.80 – 129.00 area.

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