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Friday, April 9, 2010
Apr-09 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3282 but further bearish pressure was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside and closed at 1.3360. The main bearish scenario remains intact but the nearest bias is neutral. I have two technical view which support bullish correction (even potential reversal). First, price seems to find a bottom around 1.3267/82 area. Second, we have a bullish divergence as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.3450. Break above that area could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook testing 1.3530. We need a clear break below 1.3267/82 area to confirm bearish continuation towards 1.3100.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made another attempt to the downside, bottomed at 1.5140 but closed higher at 1.5278. Once again, the 1.5135/28 area proved itself as a strong support, keep the bullish scenario intact at least testing 1.5380. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as price still trapped in range area (1.5135 – 1.5380) and we need a clear break from the range area to see clearer direction, a bullish continuation towards 1.5550 or a bearish reversal towards 1.5000.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempt to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 92.82 but closed higher at 93.36 and keep moving higher around 93.50 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term as I believe this bullish momentum could end the bearish correction and continue the main bullish trend targeting 95.50 area especially if price able to break above 93.75 today. Immediate support at 93.00. Break below that area should keep the bearish correction scenario intact testing 92.50/00 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. Price still move above the bearish channel indicating the bullish scenario remains intact but surely lose some momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone. Immediate support at 1.0640. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook. We need a consistent move above 1.0750 to keep the bullish scenario intact testing 1.0888 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 123.43 but closed higher at 124.76 and keep moving higher around 124.80 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 125.95 before aim for 127.88 area as I believe this bullish momentum could end the bearish correction and continue the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 124.00. Break below that area should keep the bearish correction intact testing 122.75 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 140.95 but whipsawed to the upside and closed significantly higher at 142.64 and keep moving higher earlier today in Asian session. Price is now struggling around the trendline resistance indicating critical technical phase. I prefer a bullish scenario but we need a consistent move above the trendline to continue bullish scenario targeting 144.70 even 146.50 area. Immediate support at 142.00 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 140.85/95 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, but as you can see on my daily chart below, the upper line of the broadening formation did a good job preventing further bearish pressure and surely keep the bullish scenario intact at least targeting 0.9326 – 0.9404 region. Only a movement back inside the formation could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario testing 0.9090/40 area.

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