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Friday, May 7, 2010
May-07 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2523 and closed at 1.2619 but corrected higher earlier today in Asian session, touched 1.2677. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I am anticipating some upside correction after significant bearish, but the main scenario remains to the downside and I am still in bearish mode especially if price able to break minor support around 1.2550 area today, re-testing 1.2520 region. Break below 1.2520 could continue bearish pressure targeting 1.2450 area before testing 1.2300 region in longer term of view. On the upside, immediate resistance at 1.2690. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.2770 region but any upside pullback won’t be a surprise. Looks like investors are getting more pessimistic about the global recovery which lead “safe haven” instruments like Yen, Dollar and Gold gain significantly.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made a huge bearish movement yesterday, slipped below 1.4779, bottomed at 1.4712 but corrected higher around 1.4850 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish both in nearest and medium term. Another movement below 1.4779/60 area could continue the bearish pressure testing 1.4712 and 1.4660 before testing 1.4500 region. On the upside, immediate resistance at 1.4932 (current high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 1.5000 area but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with short on rallies strategy.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 88.23 but closed higher at 90.53 and keep corrected higher around 91.68 at the time I wrote this comment. On daily chart below we can see that price violated the bullish channel, slipped below the major trendline support but now traded higher above the trendline indicating the major bullish scenario remains intact so far but surely under serious threat especially if price move below the trendline support again testing 88.15 region. Break below that level could trigger further bearish scenario testing 84.82 area in longer term view. Immediate resistance at 92.50. I personally don’t like huge movement in a volatile market since my risk management looks bad.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price so far unable to stay above 1.1175 area indicating limited bullish momentum so far, but the major scenario remains to the upside. We need a break above 1.1200 today to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.1250 and 1.1300/30 region. On the downside, immediate support at 1.1065/50. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.1000 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made a huge bearish movement yesterday, bottomed at 110.66 and closed at 114.24. The movement was so massive that I can only use weekly chart to describe what is happening in the market technically. On weekly chart below we can see that price slipped below the major bullish trendline but so far still unable to move consistently below the trendline as price corrected higher around 116.70 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but surely bearish in medium term outlook. Another movement below the major trendline support should be seen as bullish failure and lead price back to the downside at least testing 104.00 – 105.00 region. Immediate resistance at 116.90. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 120.60 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY also made a huge bearish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price had a significant bearish after break below the trendline support, bottomed at 129.89 and closed at 134.24. The bias is neutral in nearest term but surely bearish in medium and long term. I am expecting a big range area of 139.35 – 129.89 at this phase but prefer to short on rallies.

AUDUSD Forecast
As you can see on h1 chart below, the AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum after break below the triangle, bottomed at 0.8716 and closed at 0.8847 in high volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the fact that price fell below 0.9000 psychological level lead me to a bearish mode at this phase. Only another movement back above that level could diminish the current bearish pressure. Immediate support at 0.8716 which is the intra-day bearish target. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 0.8575 area.

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