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Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Sept-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3120 but closed lower at 1.3062 in a volatile but indecisive market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price move above the minor trend line support (white) we are still in strong bullish phase testing 1.3200 and the trend line resistance area. Immediate support at 1.3028 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback towards 1.2930 region. On the upside we still need a clear break above 1.3120 to continue the bullish pressure. Fundamental focus will be on FOMC statement. An optimistic tone by The Fed could trigger risk appetite and push Euro higher while a pessimistic tone could trigger risk aversion sentiment and push Euro lower. Price likely to stay volatile ahead and during FOMC meeting.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after break below my minor bullish channel, bottomed at 1.5536 and closed at 1.5548. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if break below 1.5531 testing 1.5450 and the lower line of the major bullish channel. Note that as long as price move inside the major bullish channel, we are still in bullish phase but need a clear break above 1.5728 to continue the bullish scenario. Fundamental focus will be on FOMC statement. An optimistic tone by The Fed could trigger risk appetite and push Cable higher while a pessimistic tone could trigger risk aversion sentiment and push Cable lower. Price likely to stay volatile ahead and during FOMC meeting.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term and so far we have no significant technical moves but I think we are still in a bullish phase especially if break above 85.90 with 87.00 as the nearest bullish target. On the downside immediate support remains around 84.82.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating potential end of the bullish correction phase and continuation of the major bearish scenario at least re-testing 0.9931 region. Immediate resistance at 1.0060. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 112.35 – 111.60 indicating consolidation. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase and expect breakout to the upside testing 113.00/30 region. On the downside, break below 111.60 could trigger further bearish pullback testing 110.60 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday but overall still move in my expected range area of 136.00 – 133.00. As long as price stay above 133.00, I believe the technical bias remains strongly bullish. However, break below 133.00 will lead us into neutral zone as direction would become unclear. Price likely to stay volatile in nearest term.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above 0.9467 but still unable to consistently move above that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains strongly bullish with 0.9506 as the nearest bullish target. Immediate support remains around 0.9330. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing the lower line of the bullish channel.

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