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Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Sept-29 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
In my weekly summary on Saturday, I said that the EURUSD bullish momentum indicated and started by strong consecutive breakouts and we could see more breakouts. As you can see on my h4 chart below, yesterday we have another strong breakout with big bullish candle above 1.3500 after price bounced from the lower line of the bullish channel which provided good support. CCI also rejected to move below zero level indicates bullish momentum remains strong. This fact could continue the bullish momentum targeting 1.3700 in nearest term before testing 1.3800 – 1.3888 area. Immediate support at 1.3500. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term re-testing the lower line of the bullish channel but the major scenario remains strongly bullish.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. The 1.5728 support level hold so far, keep the strong bullish outlook intact, testing 1.6000 especially if price able to break above 1.5900 resistance area. On the downside, only a clear break below 1.5728 and violation to the minor bullish channel (red) could diminish the bullish outlook testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white).


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped below 84.00 yesterday, bottomed at 83.69 and now still able to move below 84.00 indicates potential further bearish pressure targeting 82.87. Another consistent movement back above 84.00 could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the rounding top bearish scenario.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9736 and closed at 0.9761. This fact could trigger further bearish continuation targeting 0.9647 especially if price able to break below 0.9730 support area. On the upside, another pullback above 0.9778 could lead us to neutral area in nearest term but the main scenario remains strongly bearish.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, but found support at the lower line of the bullish channel before whipsawed to the upside, topped at 114.01. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 114.73. Immediate support at 112.80 – 113.00 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Overall we are still in strong bullish phase and only a violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday and overall still trapped between 23.6% – 50% Fibo retracement as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. I prefer a bullish scenario and expecting clear breakout above the 23’6% (133.55) testing 135.03. However, a clear breakdown below 50% level (131.70) could be a serious threat to my bullish outlook which started after the breakout above the falling wedge formation.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after struggling around 0.9600, topped at 0.9685. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9792 before testing 0.9849 especially if price able to make another breakout above 0.9685 today. Immediate support 0.9600. Break below that area could lead us back to neutral zone but the main scenario remains strongly bullish.

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