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Thursday, November 25, 2010
Nov-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. I think as long as price stays below 1.3446 the nearest bias remains bearish testing 1.3260 and the lower line of the bullish channel which is the key support area at this phase where some buying interest could be seen around that area. A violation to the bullish channel would be a threat to the long term bullish outlook and could be an early signal of a new long term bearish outlook. CCI still in negative territory on h4 chart indicates the bearish pressure is still potential.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but need a clear break below 1.5750 to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.5650 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5850. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5900 – 1.5950 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish phase. CCI still in negative territory on h4 chart suggests that the bearish pressure is still potential.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday but still trapped in range area of 82.84 – 83.70 and still need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. Aggressive intra-day traders may short around 83.70 or long around 82.84 with tight stop loss. I personally prefer to stand aside and maintain my wait and see mode until we have a clear break from the range area. A clear break above 83.70 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 84.70 while a break below 82.84 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was volatile yesterday but overall still showed no significant technical movement and still trapped in range area of 1.0000 – 0.9850. I am still in wait and see mode until we have a clear break from the range area. So far price still able to maintain position above the triangle so I am expecting a break to the upside. Aggressive intra-day traders may short around 1.0000 or long around 0.9850 with tight stop loss. Clear break above 1.0000 could trigger further bullish continuation targeting 1.0182 area. Immediate support at 0.9920/00. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9850 but only a clear break below 0.9850 could be a threat to the bullish outlook testing 0.9800 – 0.9750.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 110.30 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 111.56 but still able to move below 111.60 so far indicates the bearish bias remains intact. However, pay attention to the inverse head and shoulders formation on h1 chart below which indicates potential bullish reversal especially if able to make a clear and strong break above 111.60 targeting 112.20/80 area. On the downside, further bearish pressure could be triggered on a break below 110.74 testing 110.30 and 109 70/60 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 131.85 after failed to make a clear break below 130.84. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall we are still in bearish medium bias but like I said, we need a clear break below 130.84 to continue the bearish pressure testing 129.83. Immediate resistance at 132.00. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 133.00 and change my medium bias to neutral zone

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 0.9852 and closed at 0.9845 but had a strong bearish pressure earlier today in Asian session hit 0.9760 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact keeps my bearish reversal scenario remains intact but need consistent move below 0.9750 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9650 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9852 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 0.9881 – 0.9950 resistance area. CCI still in negative territory both in daily and h4 chart so although the market is likely to remains volatile, the overall bias should remain to the downside.

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