by: Setyo Wibowo
Several traders asked me a very simple question. “Setyo, is the GBP/USD is going to go up or down?” Like in my daily analysis lately, I said to them that the market has been very difficult to trade lately because it has been showing us no clear direction. Technically, I prefer a downside scenario since the the pair keep moving down after failed to stay above 1.6660 on June 30. But, the pair also failed to stay below 1.6000 psychological level 4 days ago. This kind of market doesn’t give us the best trading opportunities, especially for intraday traders. However, in my opinion, the highest probability trade in this situation is to buy around 1.6000 or to sell around 1.6660 area with a very tight stop loss. For me, the most important lesson we can take from current situation as forex traders is to have “unlimited patient” if the market has no clear direction and when doing nothing is the best thing to do.
EURUSD Daily Forecast
The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4000 and closed at 1.3986. On h4 chart below we have a triangle indicates consolidation market and unclear direction. For today, pay close attention to 1.4050/70 resistance area that should be tested today. Break above that area should trigger further upside pressure testing 1.4176 area. Immediate support at 1.3900 – 1.3850 area. Break below that area should trigger further downside pressure testing 1.3750 key support level. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected higher, topped at 130.18 and and closed at 130.09. We might have another upside pressure today but as long as the pair stay below key level 131.50, any upside movement has to be seen as corrective movement. However, once that level violated to the upside, the bearish H&S scenario view should be diminished or even canceled. Immediate support is seen at 129.50 followed by 128.90. CCI in oversold area and about to cross the -100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 147.13 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 151.04. On h1 chart below we can see that the pair is moving in rectangle area indicating consolidation after significant bearish momentum. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 152.30 area but the bearish scenario in medium term remains intact. Immediate support at 150.00. CCI about to cross the -100 line up on daily chart suggesting potential upside pressure.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.7700 but failed to stay below 0.7710 key level and closed higher at 0.7839. The bullish medium term remains intact, but nearest bias remains neutral. Immediate resistance at 0.7860 followed by 0.7920. Initial support at 0.7710 which should give us a strong but critical support at this phase.
USDCHF Daily Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in triangle area after a significant downside movement. I am expecting a breakdown from the triangle and continuation of the bearish movement, but downside scenario is not confirmed yet as long as 1.0750 support hold. Break below that support should trigger further bearish pressure at least towards 1.0650. Immediate resistance at 1.0890.
USDJPY Daily Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, but the 91.80 area has proved itself as a good support at this phase as the pair whipsawed to the upside, closed higher at 93.01 after touch that support area. My view remains the same, that any upside movement, as long as the pair stay below 94.60, should be seen as correction. However, we have “hammer” formation appeared on daily chart indicating that we might have another upside correction today testing 93.60 area. Break above that area should trigger further upside correction testing 94.60.
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading
