Thursday, July 9, 2009
First Signs of an Upside Correction in GBPUSD
| by: Mihai Marinescu For the last 2 weeks cable has made an impressive first move on D1 (almost 800 pips) & is now approaching the key daily trendline @1.5800. As the move down developed as an impulse (5 waves clearly noticeable on H4 from 1.6743 to 1.5982) & as H1 & M15 are starting to lose momentum the time has come to think about profit taking and /or reversing to longs for a (possibly short) corrective wave.
On H4 the 5 waves seem to start diverging with TRIX (the main indicator I’m using on this TF) & a long crossover signal seems close. The key wave TL @1.6107 conicides with the horizontal level of resistance (previous support) – I see this level as key for the final confirmation of the correction.
On H1, 5 clearly visible waves (green count) within the last H4 wave are also shaping an impulse which, once retraced more than 78% will confirm the corrective pattern for the next days.
Finally, 15min chart shows the beginning of a possible a-b-c move (from the bottom @1.5982) with a MA crossover signal now imminent (short-term change in sentiment).
Conclusion: can the current minor 15min move be the beginning of a much larger formation currently not confirmed on H4? – something to watch carefully during the next few sessions. I’m not happy about the move starting close to the psychological level of 1.6000 (i don’t trust these so-called “solid” levels to be reliable S/R for major rallies), however if the support is only going to hold in near-term (few days) this might not be a problem. On my side, shorting is over since last night & now already in small longs since current levels (1.6080 @ the time of this writing). Will start adding as the M15 & H1 confirm & stay in until the H4 turns back red (wave targets range from 1.6240 – 1.6380). Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
