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Monday, September 28, 2009
Sept-28 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EURUSD Forecast: Forming Head And Shoulders?

The EURUSD bullish scenario is still intact by a rejection to move below 1.4595 and bounce to the upside on Friday. I think we are in no trading zone now and the bearish correction/reversal warning is still there. A look at my h4 chart below we can see that after violated the bullish channel the price retreat to the upside toward the bullish channel’s lower line which is normal, but we still have potential bearish correction/reversal.

Still on my h4 chart below, with another look from another technical point of view, can you see that the price is potentially making a head and shoulders pattern? After bouncing to the upside on Friday, we might see another upside movement, even to the 1.4766 resistance area, but that will only make the H&S formation perfect and we have another downside reversal scenario. The 1.4595 area is also the neckline of the H&S, which potentially trigger further bearish momentum if price fall below that area targeting 1.4440 or even 1.4190. This bearish scenario warning by H&S can only be canceled if price break above 1.4850 area, targeting 1.5000. Be patient and don’t rush jump into the market.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum on Friday, fell below 1.6000 psychological levels. For me this fact is nothing but a strong bearish scenario for the pair. From a longer term outlook, the fall below 1.6000 produce 1.5355 and 1.4985 as potential bearish target. But that’s just a long term forecast and price need to overcome some intermediate support areas. In nearest term, the bias is bearish targeting 1.5754 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5920 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone re-testing 1.6000 area but below 1.6000 I prefer a bearish scenario.

gbpusddaily


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that we had a significant bearish momentum after price break below 90.20 support area, bottomed at 89.50, closed at 89.64 and traded even lower early today in Asian market around 88.54 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 87.10 area but we seem to have a good support around 88.50 area so do not rush selling now. I think the best strategy for now is to put a short position once we have a break below 88.50 with a tight stop loss above it. Immediate resistance at 89.15. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction but long position is not recommended.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make a significant movement on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that after triggered by a hammer, bullish correction is now making a new minor bullish channel indicating correction phase. I think we are in no trading zone. Immediate support at 1.0166. Break below that area should be seen as the end of the bullish correction and ready for bearish continuation testing 1.0000 area. Initial resistance at 1.0380. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and diminish the bearish outlook.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below key support level 133.40 the pair had significant bearish momentum and break below the major trendline support, closed at 131.70 and hit low at 129.79 early today in Asian session and now bounce higher around 130.50 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact is nothing but a bullish failure for me and a new bearish scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we seem to have a good support around 129.70 area as price bounce to the upside and reject further bearish momentum below that area so do not rush selling now as price might rebound to the upside towards the trendline area. Immediate resistance at 131.15 followed by 131.70 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but long position is not recommended at this phase. Break below 129.70 should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 127.00 area.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued it’s bearish momentum, hit my short targets at 144.00 and 143.00 even further, bottomed at 142.71 and continue to get lower early today in Asian session, bottomed at 139.71 and bounce higher around 141.02 at the time I wrote this comment. The outlook is extremely bearish and only place short position in this phase. In longer term outlook on daily chart below, we even might have a bigger bearish scenario signaled by a double top formation indicating bearish reversal scenario back towards 118.78 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 139.00. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario targeting 135.95. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h1 chart so do not rush selling now and watch out for potential upside rebound testing 141.50 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction towards 143.20 resistance area but long position is not recommended.

gbpjpydaily

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that the pair still struggling around the trendline support area at the same time form a triangle formation indicating consolidation. Break from the triangle should give us clearer direction. Breakout to the upside should targeting 0.8787 area while breakdown to the downside should targeting 0.8510 area and put an end to current bullish outlook.

audusdhourly

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