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Friday, September 25, 2009
Sept-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast: Testing 1.4595 support

The EURUSD failed to continue it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.4801 but whipsawed to the downside, closed lower at 1.4660. On my h4 chart below we can seen that the price break below 1.4670 support area and now ready to test the key support level at 1.4595 area. The situation is really tricky now. Although we have serious threat to the current bullish outlook, I think it’s too early for a bearish reversal scenario. Today I will pay attention to any reaction around 1.4595 area. Break below that area could be seen as bullish failure while rejection and bounce around that area should keep the bullish scenario intact and give us a good opportunity to place long position with tight stop loss below 1.4595 targeting 1.4800 area.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday. On my h1 chart below we can see that after breakdown from the broadening formation and below 1.6300, the pair had a significant bearish momentum, fell below 1.6113 area, bottomed at 1.6021 and closed at 1.6056. The Sterling is in heavy pressure right now and any movement below 1.6000 psychological level could hurt the Sterling really bad and might cancel the bullish scenario targeting 1.5900 and 1.5800 area. However, a rejection to move below 1.6000 could trigger an upside rebound testing 1.6113 resistance area but I think now is not the best time to place a long position.

gbpusdhourly


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 90.35 but further downside pressure was rejected as the pair closed higher at 91.24. The 90.20 support area once again proved to be a good support level at this phase. My strategy remains the same, which is to which is to sell around 92.50 and to buy around 90.20 with tight stop loss (range trading) or to buy above 92.50 or to sell below 90.20 (breakout trading). I still prefer a bearish scenario.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that hammer formation has give us a valid upside correction so far and price now testing 1.0320 resistance area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.0380 area but long position in not recommended at this phase. Break above 1.0380 could trigger further bullish rebound re-testing 1.0527 key resistance area. Initial support at 1.0166 – 1.0135 area. Break below that area should be seen as potential bearish continuation towards 1.0000 psychological level.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued it’s bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 133.33 but closed a little bit higher at 133.77. Early today in Asian session, as you can see on h4 chart below, the price has break below 133.40 support area, which is a critical level at this phase. Consistent move below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing the major trendline support (orange) and could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook. As long as the pair able to move above the trendline support, I think the bullish scenario in longer term remains intact although nearest term bias is strongly bearish. Immediate resistance at 133.80 followed by 134.30. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and could put the bearish correction to it’s end.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a huge bearish momentum yesterday, fell below 148.00 key support area , closed at 146.54 and now traded around 145.00 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact is nothing but a bearish continuation confirmation, at least in nearest term, targeting 144.00 and 143.00 area. Immediate resistance at 146.73. Break above that area should lead us to no trading zone.

gbpjpydaily

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price has break below the trendline support (blue), which is now become a resistance. This fact surely diminish the bullish outlook with neutral medium term bias but bearish nearest term bias targeting 0.8505 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.8660 area and price might retreat towards the trendline area. Break above 0.8660 should trigger further bullish momentum, keep the bullish scenario intact and make this trendline breakout as a false breakdown.

audusdhourly

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