My trading plan worked fine yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair made a downside rebound, bottomed at 1.4560 (around the rising wedge lower line) before made a bullish momentum topped at 1.4685 and closed at 1.4660. If you look at the rising wedge formation now, there is only a little room left for movement and a breakout/breakdown is imminent. A breakout to the upside will cancel the bearish reversal scenario while a breakdown to the downside should be seen at bearish scenario potential.
A look at daily chart below reveals that actually beside the rising wedge, we have another technical view which support the potential bearish reversal outlook, which is a CCI divergence, where price keep moving higher making new highs but CCI on the other hand is heading down. So, even the bullish momentum seems still in control right now, I will be very careful at this phase since we have two technical views that lead to potential bearish reversal (or at least a correction) scenario. Immediate support at 1.4570. Break below that area could be a valid breakdown from the rising wedge and could trigger a downside momentum. Initial resistance at 1.4719.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made another bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6401 but closed higher at 1.6485. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been convincingly violated to the downside indicating bullish failure. Price break below 1.6500 area (38.2% Fibo retracement of 1.6113 – 1.6740), slipped below the 50% Fibo but pullback to the upside and now struggling around 38.2% Fibo area around 1.6500. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I prefer a downside scenario testing 1.6353 area (61.8% Fibo). Immediate resistance at 1.6530. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday but failed to break above 91.80 before whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 91.00. The way I see it, the bullish correction phase might over now and we are ready for a bearish continuation outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 90.20 area. Immediate resistance at 91.60/80 area. Break above that area should be seen as a potential threat to the current bearish outlook. CCI just cross the -100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. The pair is now clearly in consolidation phase where bearish momentum seem exhausted, but we also haven’t seen significant bullish correction yet. On daily chart below you can see that in the last 4 days, the pair formed 2 inverted hammer and 2 Doji indicating an intense battle between buyers and sellers with no winner so far. This situation is one of the market condition where I prefer to stay out and just wait for further development. Immediate support at 1.0300 – 1.0250 area. Initial resistance at 1.0420.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 133.75 and closed at 133.47. On h4 chart below we have a shooting star appeared after some bullish momentum indicating potential bearish correction testing the bearish channel upper line (red) area. However, I still prefer to stand aside since like I said yesterday, the pair is in no trading zone. Immediate support at 132.80 followed by 132.20. Initial resistance at 134.36.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 151.74 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 149.44. On my h4 chart below we can see that after had a significant bearish momentum from 163.05 and hit 149.02, the pair has been corrected higher but never really able to stay above the 23.6% Fibo before fell below it again. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 149.02. Immediate resistance at 150.30. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another a Doji on daily chart and we have 5 Dojis in a row for the last 5 trading days indicating a long consolidation after some bullish running. On h1 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in range area of 0.8674 – 0.8570 area (0% – 23.6% Fibo retracement of 0.8239 – 0.8674) indicating consolidation but still in bullish context. I still prefer a bullish scenario but I think it’s better to stay out for now. The best place to put a long position is still around 0.8570 area with a tight stop loss or if we have a breakout above 0.8674 also with a tight stop loss.
