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Monday, September 7, 2009
Sept-07 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Forecast:
We had a volatile market on Friday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4190 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4326 and closed at 1.4293. On h4 chart below we still have a valid bearish channel but we have some upside pressure right now, testing the bearish channel. A violation to the bearish channel should trigger further upside pressure testing 1.4446 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we all know that actually the pair is still consolidating in range area (of 1.4405/46 – 1.4180), so I prefer to stand aside for now and wait for further development. For me the best trading strategy in this kind of market is to buy around 1.4180 or to sell around 1.4405/46 area with a tight stop loss. Immediate support is seen at 1.4250 followed by 1.4180.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is able to stay outside the bearish channel and above the trendline support (blue) indicating potential upside scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we seem to have a good resistance around the trendline resistance (yellow). Breakout above that trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.6500 – 1.6550 area. Immediate support at 1.6350. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 1.4250/35 area and could be a potential threat to the bullish scenario.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday. The pair continued it’s bullish correction phase testing the 94.15 (38.2% Fibo retracement of 97.77 – 91.93) area as the nearest potential bullish correction target. However please note that the main trend remains bearish indicated by the bearish channel (red channel). Immediate support is seen at 92.60 area. Break below that area could be seen as potential ending to the bullish correction and lead us to bearish continuation scenario re-testing 91.80 area.

usdjpydaily


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a volatile market on Friday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.0698 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.0575 and closed at 1.0605. On h1 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in a range area of 1.0715 – 1.0527 indicating consolidation phase after some bearish momentum. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0527. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario. However in my opinion the best strategy in this kind of market is to buy around 1.0527 or to sell around 1.0715 with a tight stop loss.

usdchfhourly


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 133.22 and closed at 132.93. On h4 chart below we can see that the current bullish momentum is now challenging the major bearish channel (red channel) at the same time is making a new bullish channel (blue channel) indicating potential upside pressure. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing the bearish channel upper line resistance and 133.85 area but as long as the major bearish channel hold, any upside momentum should be seen as a correction. Break above 133.85 area and violation to the bearish channel should be seen as potential bearish scenario failure and could trigger further upside pressure at least towards 134.50 and could be a beginning of a bullish outlook. Immediate support at 132.80.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday, topped at at 152.69 and closed at 152.41. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish channel has been violated to the upside indicating bearish scenario failure and the pair is making new bullish channel indicating potential bullish view. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 153.88 area. Immediate support at 152.30 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 0.8534 and closed at 0.8503. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair has break above the upper line of the triangle (B) and range area indicating a bullish view. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.8615 area. However CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside rebound testing 0.8477 support area (former resistance). Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

audusdh4

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