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Thursday, August 27, 2009
Aug-27 Forex Forecast Trend and Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum on mixed economy data yesterday. We had a positive numbers on US Durable Good Orders and New Home Sales but Stocks and oil dropped and Dollar got some support on weak Core Durable Goods Order. The better-than-expected Germany Ifo Business climate didn’t give much support for the Euro. The pair bottomed at 1.4205 and closed at 1.4240.

On h1 chart below we can see that the rectangle area (range area) has been violated to the downside suggesting potential bearish pressure in nearest term as the price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 50% Fibo retracement of 1.4044 – 1.4375 around 1.4210 area. That area should provide a good support at this phase but a clear break below that area should lead us back into 1.4170 even 1.4050 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4250/80 area. Break above that could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4375 area.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6158 and closed at 1.6230. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair slipped below the lower line of the bullish channel (the same bullish channel I showed you on daily chart yesterday) but price retreated to the upside and now struggling around the bullish channel lower line. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but we need a consistent move below the lower line of the bullish channel for more bearish confirmation targeting 1.6050 area. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 1.6280. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and lead us into no trading zone.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel still hold preventing further bearish attack. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but if the bearish pressure continue and we have a clear break below 93.70/80 and if the bullish channel violated to the downside should trigger further bearish pressure and could potentially put the end to the bullish correction. Immediate resistance at 94.50 followed by 95.05.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0715 and closed at 1.0683. On h1 chart below we can see that after made a breakout to the upside of range area the pair had a bullish momentum, forming a new bullish channel. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.0750 and test the trendline resistance area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside pressure testing 1.0640. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

usdchfhourly


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 133.90 and closed at 134.19. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential bearish outlook. However we need a clear break below 133.90 area to confirm bearish scenario targeting 132.90 area. Immediate resistance at 134.70 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

eurjpyh4
GBPJPY Forecast
The triangle breakdown gave us a valid bearish signal yesterday. The pair bottomed at 152.21 and closed at 152.94. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 150.80 area. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 153.40 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below trendline support (red, now become resistance) the pair had some bearish momentum, bottomed at 0.8251 and closed at 0.8268 but trendline support (blue) still hold so far. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a break below the trendline support (blue) and consistent move below 0.8261 area to confirm the bearish scenario targeting 0.8170 area. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 0.8320 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

audusdh4

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