by: Setyo Wibowo
EURUSD Forecast: Consolidating Ahead of Consumer Confidence, Bullish Channel Tested
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday. The better-than-expected Euro industrial new orders failed to support the Euro even actual number rose to 3.1%. Today, fundamental focus will be on US Consumer Confidence which is expected to show a better number at 48.0 (Econoday) from 46.6 last month. A worse than expected numbers could be bad for the Euro as risk aversion may increase as investors may reduce their optimism about the recovery, while a better than expected numbers could support the Euro as risk appetite may increase.
Technically on h1 chart below, we have a triangle inside the bullish channel indicating consolidation within the bullish context as long as the bullish channel hold. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A Break from the triangle should give us a clearer direction. A breakout to the upside should continue the bullish scenario towards 1.4446 while a breakdown to the downside and violation to the bullish channel should be seen as bullish failure and trigger further bearish momentum back towards 1.4050 area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6391 and closed at 1.6412. On h4 chart below we can see that the triangle formation has been violated to the downside indicating a bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.6270 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 1.6490 and 1.6540 area.
Today we will have US Consumer Confidence data which expected to rise at 48.0 from 46.6 last month. A worse than expected numbers should support my bearish view, while a better than expected numbers might give support to the Sterling as risk appetite may rise.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, hit my first long target at 95.05 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 94.49. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pullback testing the upper line of the bearish channel which is now become a support area. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think it’s better to stay away now and wait for further development. Immediate support is seen at 94.00 area. As long as the pair able to stay above that area, the bullish scenario remains intact. However, a break below that area and a movement back inside the bearish channel should be seen as bullish failure and potentially trigger further bearish pressure. Initial resistance at 95.05 (yesterday’s high).
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected higher yesterday. The double bottom formation around 1.0560 area I told you yesterday gave us a valid warning of an upside rebound. On daily chart below we can see that the pair is now back inside the rectangle area. I think we area in no trading zone now. Immediate resistance at 1.0650 followed by 1.0750. Initial support at 1.0560. CCI just cross the -100 line up on daily chart suggesting potential upside pressure.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 136.07 but further bullish momentum was rejected and closed lower at 134.97. On h4 chart below we can see that after violated the bearish channel (red) to the upside, the pair is making a new bullish channel (blue) but price retreated to the downside headed toward the bullish channel lower line and the bearish channel upper line area. A pullback to the downside after breakout from bearish channel is often happen and as long as the new bullish channel hold, the bullish scenario in medium term remains intact. However the bias is bearish in nearest term as the price may retreat further to the downside testing the bullish channel lower line. I prefer to stay out for now. Immediate support at 134.85 – 134.20 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum and could be a potential threat to the bullish scenario. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 156.80 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, hot the bottom at 154.81 and closed at 155.08. On h4 chart below we can see that it was a case of a false breakout from the triangle. We have some downside pressure as the pair seems ready to test the lower line of the triangle. A breakdown after a false breakout usually lead to significant bearish momentum, so if we have a breakdown to the triangle today, the Sterling may fall further against the Yen. Immediate support is seen at 154.00. A Clear break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 156.80 area (yesterday’s high).
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.8427 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 0.8373. On h4 chart below we can see that after breakout above the trendline resistance, the pair now retreat to the downside testing the trendline which is now become a support. The bias is neutral in nearest term but if the trendline violated to the downside we may have further bearish momentum towards 0.8261 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8450 – 0.8500 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.
Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Indicator, forex signal, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading
