by: Setyo Wibowo
EURUSD Forecast:
We had a volatile market yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.4246 but the Dollar was supported by The Fed decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and to gradually slow the pace of Treasury securities purchases.
Although supported by FOMC statement, the Dollar rally was limited by technical trendline support, as you can see in h4 chart below. We also have a broadening formation as a result of high volatile market, where the price made new highs and new lows with no clear direction. My technical focuses are on the broadening formation and trendline resistance/support. Here are the scenarios:
1.Bullish: If the trendline resistance and upper border of the broadening formation violated to the upside, further bullish momentum back towards 1.4336 could be expected and will be a potential threat to the bearish reversal scenario. CCI just cross the 100 line up on h4 chart, provide potential upside pressure, support the bullish view.
2.Bearish: If the trendline support and the lower border of the broadening formation violated to the downside, the bearish reversal scenario is confirmed at least testing 1.4000 support area.
The bullish scenario seems to have the advantage since supported by CCI, but until one of those conditions fulfilled, I prefer to stay out.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a volatile movement yesterday, but made another indecisive market formed another Doji on daily chart. Although UK’s weak and pessimistic economy outlook should give more downside pressure to Sterling, so far further bearish scenario was rejected by technical trendline support as you can see on h4 chart below. The bias is neutral both on nearest and medium term. The fact that the trendline support hold could trigger further upside pressures in nearest term. However, although diminished by current upside pressures, as long as the pair stay below 1.6660, the bearish reversal scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 1.6430 followed by 1.6389 (yesterday’s low). Break below 1.6389 should continue the bearish scenario. Initial resistance at 1.6570 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6660 and would be a potential threat to the bearish reversal scenario. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a volatile movement yesterday but made no significant movement. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 95.10 before whipsawed to the upside, topped at 96.73 and closed at 96.11. This fact should keep bullish correction scenario which has started from July 13 intact and the trendline support area should give us a good long trade opportunity as it has been proved as strong support area. Immediate support at 95.70. Initial resistance at 96.70. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0730 but closed a little bit 1.0765. On h1 chart below we have a bearish channel indicating bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0640 but we seem to have good support around 1.0750/30 area. A clear break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Immediate resistance at 1.0815 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum.
EURJPY Forecast
We have a volatile market yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, hit my short target at 134.50, bottomed at 134.06 but whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 137.15 and closed at 136.49. On h4 chart below we can see that after had some bearish momentum since breakdown from the trendline support (now resistance), the pair retreated to the upside towards the trendline. This kind of movement often happen and although diminished by current upside pressures, as long as the pair able to stay below the trendline, the bearish scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 135.70. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 137.15. Break above that area should be seen as bearish failure and trigger further bullish momentum targeting 138.50 area.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY also had volatile market and technically a mess yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after had some bearish momentum since break below the trendline support (now resistance) and lower border of the broadening formation, bottomed at 155.94, the pair whipsawed to the upside, back inside the broadening formation and now testing the trendline resistance (former support). While medium term bias remains unclear, a consistent move above 158.50 area could trigger further upside pressures testing 160.20 area in nearest term. Immediate support at 157.80. A clear break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 156.50 area. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8178 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 0.8370 and closed at 0.8338. This fact keep the bullish medium intact. On h1 chart below we have bullish channel indicating bullish view. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.8450 – 0.8500 area. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 0.8300 support area.
Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Indicator, forex signal, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading
