by: Setyo Wibowo
EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum on Friday as US NFP and Unemployment rate surprised us with much better than expected numbers. While investors might see not enough reasons to hold the Euro after Trichet said on ECB press conference that Euro economy will remain weak this year, US Dollar is likely to have all the advantage as safe heaven currency. So I am expecting a stronger Dollar.
Technical Outlook:
My technical study on both daily and weekly chart suggests a bearish view. On weekly chart below, we can see that after significant bullish rally since March, a shooting star appeared, indicating potential bearish reversal. At the same time, we have CCI divergence.
On daily chart, we have false breakout from the range bound area, and false breakout usually lead to significant reversal. However, CCI in overbought area and about to cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for a potential upside correction testing 1.4200 and 1.4270 resistance area. Only a break above 1.4336 should be considered as potential threat to the bearish scenario. The medium outlook should remains neutral with expected strong support seen at 1.3750 area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.6650 and closed at 1.6682. After BoE statement that recession have been deeper that previously thought in UK, I see no reasons why investors should hold the Sterling.
On h1 chart below we can see that the trendline support as a result of bullish momentum since July 07 has been violated to the downside indicating bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.6587. However CCI in oversold area and about to cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for potential upside correction testing 1.6750 resistance area.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped 97.77 and closed at 97.56. On daily chart below we can see that the trendline resistance has been convincingly violated to the upside indicating bullish view. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 98.50 area. However CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 96.70 support area.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.0843 and closed at 1.0808 after much better than expected US NFP and Unemployment rate. On h4 chart below we can see that after made a false breakdown below key support 1.0589 the pair whipsawed to the upside, and convincingly break above 1.0750 area. Technically, usually a false breakdown leads to a reversal to the upside. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.0940 area but remains neutral in medium term. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 1.0750 support area (former resistance).
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 138.69 and closed at 138.36. Technically speaking, the bias is now bullish in both nearest and medium term targeting 139.21 area but fundamentally we have to be very careful since Euro economy outlook is still weak and give us not enough reasons to convincingly hold the Euro, so the bullish outlook seems limited in this phase. I prefer to stay away from the market and wait for further development before take the next steps. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart suggests potential downside rebound testing support area around 137.60. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 136.08.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY surprisingly had a bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 163.05 and closed at 162.73. Although the bullish momentum seems very strong, I will be very careful before open a long position. The first reason is fundamental, where UK economy outlook addressed by BoE on Thursday was a very pessimistic one. Second reason is technical, earlier today in Asian market, the pair is traded lower below 162.57 (double top, see the chart below) area indicating that breakout to the upside is not so convincingly. So I prefer to stay away from the market for now and watch for further development. Immediate support at 161.30. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure towards 159.30. Initial resistance at 163.05 (Friday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued it’s consolidation on Friday. On h1 chart below we can see that the intermediate support at 0.8350 area still hold, preventing further bearish downside correction. Clear break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 0.8261 area. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I still prefer to stay away from the market for now but as long as the pair stay above 0.8261 the bullish outlook in medium term remains intact. Initial resistance at 0.8450 – 0.8500 area.
Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Indicator, forex signal, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading
