by: Setyo Wibowo
EURUSD Forecast: Technical Bullish Mode Confirmed, Fundamental Focus Remains on NFP
The EURUSD finally made a breakout from range-bound market, traded consistently above key level 1.4336 yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4443 and closed at 1.4418. On daily chart below we can see that after made a false breakdown below the broadening formation the pair whipsawed to the upside and made a breakout to the upside. For me, technically this fact is a bullish confirmation. Now we should have a bullish bias both in medium and nearest term. Nearest bullish target is seen at 1.4500 and 1.4590 area while medium bullish target is seen at 1.4719, December 18 2008 high. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for a potential downside correction testing 1.4336 support area.
While my technical view has confirm the bullish outlook, on fundamental side, like I said yesterday, I still need a positive NPF reading on Friday. So if we have a break below 1.4336 area, we need to wait for NFP number on Friday which could be a key fundamental event to determine the next scenario.
GBPUSD Forecast: Break above 1.6750, Bullish Mode Confirmed
After break above 1.6750 resistance area, the GBPUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.6986 and closed at 1.6935. If wee look back on daily chart below, after started a bullish run since June 11, the pair has been traded in range area/consolidation (rectangle) for 8 weeks. So, I believe this breakout should trigger significant bullish continuation. Now we should have bullish bias both on medium and nearest term. Nearest target is seen at 1.7100/50 area while medium target is seen at 1.7450 – 1.7500 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 1.6850/10 support area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but as long as the pair able to stay above 1.6750 medium outlook remains bullish.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY failed to continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, topped at 95.42 and closed at 95.25. On daily chart below we can see that the trendline support did a good job preventing further bearish attack and keep bullish correction scenario which has started from July 13, indicating that further bullish correction could still take place. The pair is now traded between trendline resistance and trendline support. Technically, this fact is a no trading zone for me. I am expecting trading range of 96.00 – 94.90 area today.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0560 and closed at 1.0588. Technically, this pair is in critical phase. As you can see on daily chart below, the pair is now attempting to make a valid breakdown from the range area. When that happen, we should have confirmation on bearish scenario towards 1.0364 area. Although I believe the breakdown is imminent, we should wait for a consistent move below 1.0589 area to place short trade. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for potential upside correction testing 1.0670 area. Break above that area should lead us back to no trading zone.
Daily Forecast for Crosses
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 137.54 and closed at 137.34. On h4 chart below we can see that so far the price is able to keep moving above the trendline and consistently move above 136.08 area. Technically, this fact is nothing but a bullish confirmation. Nearest bullish target is seen at 138.00/30 area before re-testing 139.21 (June 05 high). However, CCI in overbought area and heading down in daily chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 136.08 support area. Break below that area should lead us back into no trading zone.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued it’s bullish scenario yesterday. After break above 159.30, the pair topped at 161.76 and closed at 161.31. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 162.57 area. Break above area should be seen as critical phase as it could be a beginning of potential bullish long term outlook. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 160.38 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but as long as the pair stay above 159.30 medium outlook remains bullish.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued it’s bullish scenario yesterday, topped at 0.8439 and closed at 0.8471. The bias remains bullish and still targeting 0.8500. Note that that area could be a very strong resistance and if reached, we might see some downside correction. However, the scenario is on the upside, so if that area is broken to the upside, expect for further bullish scenario towards 0.8700 area. Immediate support at 0.8390/60 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term buat as long as the pair move above 0.8261, medium outlook remains bearish.
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading, Moving Average
