by: Setyo Wibowo
Weekly outlook: The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum on better than expected US GDP data on Friday, topped at 1.4278 and closed at 1.4255. Note that the medium term outlook remains neutral as we still trapped in range-bound market. This week, I will focus on NFP number on Friday. If NFP data shows positive result, I believe we should see a breakout from the range market and should set up a bullish scenario at least towards 1.4700 area. However if NFP data is disappointing, Greenback should edges up as risk aversion should rises.
Intraday outlook:
The nearest term outlook is bullish and we should see further upside pressure testing 1.4336 key level. However, as you can see on h1 chart below, CCI is heading down and about to cross the 100 line down so watch out for potential downside pullback testing 1.4150/80 support area. As long as the pair stay above that area, I prefer a bullish scenario.
The GBPUSD finally break above key level 1.6660 on Friday, topped at 1.6732 and closed at 1.6709 on a better than expected GDP data. Usually, a breakout from a long period of range market would produce significant bullish momentum. However, as shown on h1 chart below, we seem to have potential double top formation around 1.6750 area as a potential warning of a downside pullback. Here is what I have in mind: although the nearest bias is strongly bullish, I will wait for a clear break above 1.6750 area for a bullish confirmation . A failure to move above that area should lead us to a downside correction back towards 1.6660. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside rebound.
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 94.49 and closed at 94.66. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish pressure is now testing the trendline support. So technically I will focus on that trendline support. A breakdown should set up a bearish outlook and I would have no hesitation to place a short trade targeting 93.08 area. We know that long term trend is bearish, so if the price break below the trendline support, it should give us a high probability trade set up on the downside. Immediate resistance at 95.30. Break above that area and failure to break below trendline support should lead us into no trading zone as nearest term outlook would become unclear.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that the price has been consolidating in a range market after bearish momentum since March 12, attempted to push higher but failed to make a breakout then finally fell on Friday, bottomed at 1.0657 and closed at 1.0682. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing the lower border of the range market around 1.0589 area. A break below that area should set up further bearish scenario on medium term testing 1.0364 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for a potential upside rebound testing 1.0750. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that the price is now back above the trendline suggesting potential bullish outlook. However we know that lately this pair is technically a mess as it still struggling around the trendline without any convincing direction. I will focus on July 27 high at 138.08 area. A clear break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 138.87 or even 138.87 area. Immediate support at 134.10. Break below that area would continue the uncertainty and could lead us into no trading zone.
GBPJPY Forecast
The violation to the major trendline resistance to the upside on June 30 should set us a bullish outlook, but we didn’t see a significant and convincing bullish momentum on Friday suggests that bullish momentum could be exhausted now and upside scenario could be very limited at this point. I will pay attention to 159.30 level. A clear breakout above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 162.57. Immediate support at 157.50. Break below that area should diminish the bullish outlook.
AUDUSD Forecast
The better than expected US GDP data on fundamental side gave me bullish confirmation on technical side as the pair is now move convincingly above 0.8261. On Friday, the pair topped at 0.8365 and closed at 0.8356. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.8500 area. However, CCI in overbought area and heading down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside rebound testing 0.8290 support area.
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading
