GBPUSD Short-term Outlook

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EUR Bull, Bull, Bull!

July 22 - Daily Forex Forecast




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Friday, July 31, 2009
July- 31 GDP Data and Technical Levels to Watch
by: Setyo Wibowo


The EURUSD bearish momentum was paused yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after breakdown from the broadening formation price retreat to the upside but still able to stay outside the broadening formation so far. Technically speaking, a retreat or a pullback after breakout/breakdown is normal and often happen in the market and as long price stay outside the formation, the bearish scenario remains intact.

We have US GDP data today that should be a very important data. A worse than expected GDP should be good for the Greenback and we should see further Euro weakness towards 1.3870 while a better data could cancel the bearish outlook and probably trigger significant strength for the Euro re-testing 1.4336 once again. Good luck :)

eurusd4hchart


The GBPUSD failed to continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6525 and closed at 1.6491. Surely we haven’t seen significant move and clear direction so far, but we have US GDP data today that could be very important data that could trigger significant movement and potential clearer direction. A worse that expected GDP should be good for the Dollar and we should have a bearish momentum testing trendline support as seen on daily chart below, and if the trendline support is broken we should have further bearish scenario testing key level 1.6000. However, a better than expected GDP should be good for the Cable and give us potential bullish scenario re-testing 1.6660 area. Good luck :)

gbpusddaily


USD/JPY Forecast

The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. The triple top formation has been violated to the upside indicating potential bullish outlook testing 96.50 – 97.00 area. However it’s still too early for bullish outlook in medium term since actually the pair is still below the trendline resistance. The current bullish momentum might be strong enough to test the trendline resistance but until it is broken, the bullish scenario is not confirmed yet. In nearest term, as long as the pair stay above 95.30 area, I prefer a bullish outlook. But once traded below that area, we should see further bearish pullback.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF had indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. As you can see on h4 chart below, the pair attempted to push higher but failed to stay consistently above 1.0922 area. Important range to be watched today is 1.0922 – 1.0800. A breakout/breakdown from that range area should give us a clearer direction. A breakout above 1.0922 should trigger further upside momentum towards 1.1022 while a breakdown below 1.0800 should trigger further bearish scenario back towards 1.0620 area.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 134.87 and closed at 134.40. On h4 chart below we can see that technical mess continue as the pair now back above the trendline indicating indecisive, market hesitation and unclear direction. What is the best thing to do in this situation? Nothing. Just stay away from the market until we have a clear direction. Immediate resistance at 134.90. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 136.08 area. Initial support at 133.20.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the rising wedge bearish scenario has failed as the price maintain position convincingly above the trendline. This fact should be seen as potential bullish outlook at least testing 158.60 area. However, CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pullback testing 157.00 – 156.50 support area. Break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD had another bullish momentum yesterday after corrected lower on Wednesday. Today we have US GDP data that should be very important for us to determine whether we have confirmation on bullish continuation scenario or go back into boring range market or even potential bearish scenario. A worse than expected GDP data should cancel the bullish outlook while a better than expected data should support bullish outlook towards 0.8500 area. Good luck :)

audusddaily

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