by: Setyo Wibowo
EURUSD Forecast: Remains Sideways Ahead of ECB, Technical Bullish Still Intact
The EURUSD continued to consolidate in range bound area yesterday, as you can see on h4 chart below. It is clear that the market need significant fundamental catalyst to make a break on either side. Today we will have ECB rate decision which expected to keep rate at 1%. However I think the market will focus more to ECB press conference regarding overall monetary policy and Euro economy outlook. Given the facts that investors may begin to have growing optimism about world economy recovery but no signs of a strong recovery in the Euro, the ECB statement is likely to be “flat”. We might see volatile market during ECB conference, but unless we have rate cut or hike or any surprise statement, I doubt that EURUSD will have significant movement today.
On technical side, the pair is still in consolidation phase after bullish running. I am expecting a breakout to the upside at least testing 1.4500 area. Clear break above that area should trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.4179. Key support level remains at 1.4336. As long as the pair stay above that area, the bullish outlook remains intact. However, break below that area should be a potential threat to the bullish outlook.
GBPUSD Forecast: Limited Bullish, QE Program Eyed
The GBPUSD still trapped in range bound area yesterday. Although we had better than expected UK positive numbers of Halifax HPI, Manufacturing Production and Services PMI, the bullish momentum still limited as the Greenback seemed to be supported by ADP’s worse than expected employment data. Today’s focus will be on BoE rate decision which expected to keep rate at 0.5% and statement about Quantitative Easing program. Market will anticipate whether BoE will continue to buying assets or decide to stop the program as we have seen a little evidence that the QE program succeed to boost the economy. It’s not easy to decide the effect of that decision to the Cable, but since the market might see that the program brought no significant support for the economy, the sentiment might be positive for the Cable if BoE decide to stop the program.
On technical side, the GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.7042 but further bullish momentum was very limited as the pair closed lower at 1.6991. I am still expecting further bullish continuation and 1.7100 remains a potential nearest bullish target. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on daily chart suggests potential downside correction, but as long as the pair stay above 1.6750 area, my technical view remains bullish. Immediate support is seen at 1.6890 area.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 94.62 and closed at 94.90. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support has been violated to the downside, suggests potential bearish outlook and an end to the bullish correction. However I would wait until a clear break below 94.35 (Tuesday’s low) to confirm the bearish scenario. Immediate resistance is seen at 95.50 area. Break above that area should diminish the bearish outlook. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued to consolidate yesterday and still trapped in range bound area as you can see on h4 chart below, as the lacked of fundamental catalyst to move the market. Until we have a clear break on either side of range bound area, keep stay out from the market. I still prefer a breakdown to the downside and consistent move below 1.0589 area to continue the bearish scenario towards 1.0364. Eyes on co-relation with EURUSD as we will have ECB rate decision and overall Euro economy outlook especially about the progress of the economic recovery. Bullish EURUSD should followed by bearish USDCHF while Bearish EURUSD should followed by bullish USDCHF. On Medium term outlook, my view remains bearish as long as the pair able to stay below 1.0750 area.
EURJPY Forecast
As you can see on h4 chart below, the EURJPY continued it’s moderate lower consolidation yesterday, made a lower high but also higher low compared to Tuesday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we might see another lower consolidation today but as long as the pair stay above 136.08 my technical medium view remains bullish targeting at least 139.38 area and short position is not recommended at this phase. Immediate resistance is seen at 137.66. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 139.38 or even higher. Do not rush jump into the market since we have not seen a clear bullish continuation or bearish reversal signal yet.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. The bias should remains bullish in medium term as long as the pair stay above 159.30 area. However, we have a potential bearish reversal warning showed by a double top formation around 162.57 area, as you can see on h4 chart below. A break below 159.30 should cancel the bullish outlook and could lead us back towards 154.00 area. However, if the double top bearish reversal scenario fail and the pair break above 162.57, we should have a bullish scenario confirmation and could be a beginning to bullish long term outlook.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued a second day of consolidation yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 0.8360 but closed higher at 0.8407. On h1 chart below we have minor bearish channel indicating further lower consolidation might still take place but as long as the pair stay above 0.8261, my medium technical view remains bullish and 0.8500 remains a potential nearest bullish target. Immediate support remains at 0.8350 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction testing key level 0.8261.
Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Indicator, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading
