by: Setyo Wibowo
EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a limited bearish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4103 but closed a little bit higher at 1.4145. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is now testing the trendline support. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I am expecting a clear breakdown below that trendline support and continue further bearish momentum at least toward 1.4000 area before re-testing 1.3750 in longer term. CCI about to cross the -100 line up on h4 chart suggesting potential upside rebound testing 1.4180 – 1.4220 resistance. Immediate support at 1.4100 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6430 and closed at 1.6483. On h1 chart below we have a valid bearish channel indicating bearish view. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 1.6350. CCI about to cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for potential upside correction testing 1.6570 (23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.7042 – 1.6430) and 1.6660 (38.2& Fibo retracement of 1.7042 – 1.6430). We know that the pair has been traded lower significantly since Thursday after a pessimistic economy outlook by BoE, so I think overall the Sterling should remains under pressure. We have UK trade balance data today. A positive reading might trigger upside rebound while a negative reading should trigger bearish continuation.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 96.90 and closed at 97.06. As long as the pair stay above 96.70, any downside correction is normal after significant bullish running on Friday. On h1 chart below we have a “flag” formation which technically a bullish continuation scenario, where the price consolidates lower in a minor bearish channel after significant bullish and a breakout from the flag’s upper border is expected to continue the bullish scenario towards 98.50. However, until that happen, I prefer to stay out for now.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.0882 but the bullish momentum was limited as the pair closed lower at 1.0848. I still prefer a bullish scenario with 1.0940 remains potential upside target, but on h4 chart below we can see that CCI in overbought area, heading down, and about to cross the 100 line down suggests potential bullish exhaustion and downside rebound testing 1.0800 and 1.0750 support area before continue it’s bullish scenario. However, a breakdown below 1.0750 should be seen as potential threat to the bullish scenario.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. For me, this is a proof that the bullish momentum on Friday is fragile because it was not supported by Euro strong fundamental outlook. That kind of “unreal” bullish momentum could lead to significant downside reversal. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 136.00 area. However, CCI just cross the -100 line on h1 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 137.50 – 137.80 area. Although technically, as long as the pair stay above 136.00 the bullish scenario remains intact, but overall I am expecting further bearish scenario based on the weak Euro economy outlook this year addressed by Trichet on ECB press conference last Thursday.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. Similar to EURJPY, the bullish Sterling was not supported by a good fundamental basis. On h1 chart below, we have a broadening formation, where price hit new highs and low without clear direction. I think it’s better to stay away for now and waiting for further development. I prefer a downside scenario breakdown the lower border of the broadening formation, but until that happen, doing nothing is the best thing for now. Immediate support at 159.00 Initial resistance at 161.70.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued it’s consolidation yesterday. The pair has been trade lower since August 04, made a minor moderate bearish channel but without significant momentum. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support has been violated to the downside suggests potential bearish outlook and a threat to the current bullish medium term, but since we have not seen significant momentum and the pair still traded above 0.8261, this violation could be a misleading bearish signal. Keep stay out from the market until we have more significant movement. Immediate support at 0.8325. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 0.8261 key level. Initial resistance at 0.8450.
Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Indicator, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading
