by: Setyo Wibowo
EURUSD Forecast: Indecisive Market Waiting for FOMC
The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, by opened and closed at almost the same price, formed a Doji on daily chart. The market is likely to wait for FMOC meeting tomorrow regarding rate decision and quantitative easing program before making the next steps. The Fed is expected to keep the rate at 0.25% and keep it’s 1.75T asset purchase program. I will write more details about this matter tomorrow.
On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support still hold preventing further downside pressure. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I think it’s better to stay out from the market for now until FMOC decision tomorrow. I am expecting range area between 1.4220 – 1.4100 today.
GBPUSD Forecast: Consolidation Ahead of BoE Inflation Report
The GBPUSD also made indecisive market, formed a Doji on daily chart. Today we will have BoE inflation report that should be an important catalyst to move the market significantly. After decided to continue it’s quantitative easing program to GBP 175b last Thursday, I am expecting a dovish report and Sterling should remains under pressure.
Technically on h1 chart below we can see that the pair is consolidating after significant bearish momentum, moving in rectangle area. A break on either side should give us clearer direction. I am expecting a breakdown and continue the bearish scenario towards 1.6350. However, a breakout to the upside should trigger further upside pullback toward 1.6660 area.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, break below 96.70, bottomed at 95.75 and closed at 95.94. This fact change my nearest term outlook from bullish to bearish testing 95.00 area, but remains neutral in medium term. On daily chart below we can see that the price seems ready to test the trendline support. The CCI is about to cross the -100 line down on daily chart support the bearish scenario. A break below the trendline support and 95.00 area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 93.00. However hourly CCI just cross the -100 line up so watch out for potential upside pullback testing 96.20/50 resistance area.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0789 and closed at 1.0818. On daily chart below we can see that actually in longer term outlook, the pair is still in range bound area. A breakout above 1.0940 should confirm further bullish scenario. However, a break below 1.0750 could bring the pair back testing 1.0589 area. The market is likely to wait for FOMC meeting tomorrow before take the next steps, so it’s better to stay out for now. I am expecting a choppy market between 1.0750 – 1.0850 today.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my short target at 136.00 even lower, bottomed at 135.24 and closed at 135.80. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential bearish scenario. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 134.50. However, CCI in oversold area and heading don on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 136.50 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone. After violated the trendline support to the downside, I will not surprised if the price make a pullback to the upside around the trendline area but long position is not recommended at this phase.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 157.81 and closed at 158.07. On 4h chart below we can see that the price made breakdown from the broadening formation, but retreat back inside the formation. The bias remains bearish in nearest term. However, we seem to have good support around 157.80 area. Now that the price is back inside the broadening formation and CCI about to cross the -100 line up on h4 chart, watch out for potential upside pullback testing 160.00 area. Break below 157.80 would be a bearish medium term confirmation for me towards 153.00 area.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8274 and closed at 0.8288. The pair is in critical phase now, where bearish momentum seems ready to challenge 0.8261 key level in nearest term. As long as 0.8261 support area hold the bullish medium term remains intact, but as you can see on h4 chart below, the fact that the trendline support has been violated to the downside should be considered as potential threat to the medium bullish outlook. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart suggesting potential upside pressure testing 0.8350 resistance area.
Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Indicator, forex signal, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading
