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Monday, May 10, 2010
May-10 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD made a gap earlier today in Asian session, opened higher at 1.2920, bottomed at 1.2809 and traded around 1.2860 at the time I wrote this comment, still in a high volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a bearish context in longer term view. However, if the upside pullback able to consistently above 1.2930 we may see further recovery testing 1.3000 region. Immediate support at 1.2809 (current low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2750 – 1.2700 region before re-testing 1.2500 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 1.4475 but whipsawed to the upside, closed at 1.4818 and keep moving higher around 1.4870 at the time I wrote this comment. 1.4500 – 1.4475 region can be seen as nearest term bottom so far as price retreat to the upside testing the trendline resistance (former support) but as long as price stay below the trendline, the major outlook remains to the downside. Immediate resistance at 1.4900. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.5000 region. Initial support at 1.4760. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.4680 before re-testing 1.4500 – 1.4475 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY has been moving in a high volatile market without clear direction since Thursday. Price so far able to move above the major trendline support indicating the major bullish scenario remains intact but I think we are in no trading zone now. Personally I tend to avoid a high volatile and unclear market. Immediate resistance at 93.75. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 94.70. Initial support at 91.71 (current low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing the major trendline support once again.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish momentum so far. In medium term outlook I am expecting a range area of 1.1250 – 1.0888 but nearest term bias seems more to the downside testing 1.0888. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario. On the upside, we need a consistent move above 1.1250 to continue the bullish scenario. I think I will stand aside for now and see further development.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made a big gap earlier today in Asian session, opened higher at 119.74, 340 pips higher than its close price on Friday at 116.34. On h1 chart below we can see that price made a significant upside recover after a significant bearish, moving in a minor bullish channel. A very tricky movement for sure. Technically this upside correction is targeting 121.35 area but the major outlook remains bearish. Immediate support at 118.08 (current low). Break below that area could be seen as potential end to the upside correction movement testing 113.62. I think I will stand aside for now and see further development.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant upside recovery since bottomed at 129.89 after violated the major trendline support, traded around 137.84 at the time I wrote this comment. Technically, a retreat to the upside testing the trendline oftenly happen but as long as price able to stay below the trendline the major outlook remains bearish. Expected range at 139.35 – 135.70 but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made a gap earlier today in Asian session, opened at 0.9042, 180 pips higher than its Friday close price at 0.8862, still moving in a high volatile and unclear market. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think I will stay away for now and wait for further development. As long as price able to stay above 0.9000 we may see further upside recovery testing 0.9070 even 0.9150 region. On the other hand, another pullback below 0.9000 could trigger further weakness testing 0.8922 (current low) before testing 0.8917 region.

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