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Wednesday, June 2, 2010
June-02 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was very volatile yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.2111 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.2352 and closed lower at 1.2230. On h4 chart below we can see that price still move inside the bearish channel indicating the major bearish scenario remains intact but the significant downside rejection as price is getting closer to 1.2000 area could be a serious threat to the technical bearish view at least in nearest term. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I will pay attention to 1.2350 resistance and 1.2150 support area today. Break above 1.2350 could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario while another movement below 1.2150 could trigger another downside pressure testing 1.2000 but still vulnerable to another buying on dips activity as some people might see 1.2000 – 1.2100 area as a good area to start buying the Euro again.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below the bullish channel but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4721 and closed at 1.4648 in a high volatile market. On h4 chart below we can see that price had a strong bullish momentum after produced a false breakdown. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 1.4720 area targeting 1.4865 before testing 1.5000 – 1.5050 area. A failure to do so could lead us into a new range area between 1.4720 – 1.4527 but as long as price move inside the bullish channel the main outlook in nearest – medium term remains bullish.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday after violated the bullish channel, bottomed at 90.53 but closed higher at 90.95 and keep moving higher around 91.40 at the time I wrote this comment. Although technically this pair is little bit a mess, this fact should keep the bullish scenario intact with 91.80 – 92.20 as nearest upside target. Only a movement below 90.50 could be a serious threat to the current bullish bias testing 89.00 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the range area, topped at 1.1724 but closed significantly lower at 1.1566. This fact could produced a false breakout scenario which usually trigger a bearish pressure testing 1.1445 area. A clear break below 1.1445 could be seen a a serious threat to the bullish scenario. On the other hand, another upside attempt above 1.1695 should keep the major bullish scenario intact at least testing 1.1750 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 109.75 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 112.83 and closed at 111.24 in a high volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the major bearish scenario remains intact. Looks like price found a good support around 108 – 109 area as we have been seeing significant upside pullback every time price touch that area. Expected medium term range at 114.50 – 108.83. I will short around 114.50 or long around 108.83 as I see the best risk-reward ratio there. Between that area, I will stay away from this pair for now.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 130.81 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 134.44 and closed at 133.23 in a high volatile market. This fact should keep the bullish correction scenario intact targeting 136.75 area. Only a movement below 133.20 could wane the bullish bias and lead us back into no trading zone but the bullish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the bullish channel. It’s a very tricky market and we could see another high volatility movement today.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now struggling around 0.8360 area indicating a critical technical phase. We need to see another consistent move above 0.8360 to keep the bullish scenario intact as yesterday’s movement below that area could produce a false breakdown scenario which could trigger significant bullish momentum with 0.8715 area remains a technical upside target. On the other hand, a consistent movement below 0.8360 could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook and lead us back towards 0.8070 region.

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