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Wednesday, May 19, 2010
May-19 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.2443 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.2164 and closed at 1.2201. Technically this fact opens the door for further bearish scenario testing my weekly target around 1.2000 area as I see no more significant technical support or upside correction pattern so far except price already in oversold area. In a bearish market, oversold area should only be seen as a potential correction before continue to push lower. Immediate resistance at 1.2280 area. Unless we have high impact news or data that could pause Dollar strength, I don’t expect any movement higher than that area today. However, break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.2320 area but I still prefer bearish scenario at this phase with short on rallies strategy.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bearish scenario yesterday, bottomed at 1.4305, slipped below 1.4251 earlier today in Asian session, but still unable to stay consistently below 1.4251 so far. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.4110 region but we need a consistent move below 1.4251 area to continue the bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.4400 area which could be tested today as price already in oversold area. Unless we have high impact news or data that could pause Dollar strength, I don’t expect any movement higher than that area today. However, break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.4450 area but I still prefer bearish scenario at this phase with short on rallies strategy.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY slipped below 91.71 key level support earlier today in Asian session but still unable to move below that area so far. Although this fact opens the door for further bearish pressure testing the major trendline support, we need a consistent move below 91.71 to continue the bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 92.50 area. Break above that area could lead us back into no trading zone as price will again trapped in boring range area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.1512 and closed at 1.1476. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.1595 region. On h4 chart below we can see that during the upside momentum, price made some downside correction in some minor bearish channels but all of them were violated one by one. So we may have another downside correction in a minor bullish channel but the main scenario remains to the upside. Immediate support at 1.1400. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.1360 area but I still prefer a bullish scenario with buy on dips strategy.


EURJPY Forecast
As you can see on my h4 below, the EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum after made a false breakout above the trendline resistance, bottomed at 112.10 and closed at 112.54. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 110.66 area. Immediate resistance at 113.45 area which could be tested today as price already in oversold area. Break above that area could lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear but as long as price stay below the trendline support (red) I still prefer a bearish scenario with short on rallies strategy.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 134.79 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 131.82 and hit 130.40 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 129.89 area. However price is already in oversold area so watch out for potential upside correction testing 133.00 resistance area. Break above that area could lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear but the main scenario remains to the downside and I still prefer short on rallies strategy at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
As you can see on my daily chart below, the AUDUSD slipped below 0.8570 earlier today in Asian session. From longer term of view, we know that price has been moving in range area of 0.9404 – 0.8570 so this pair in in critical technical phase now. A consistent move below 0.8570 could be the beginning of a big downtrend scenario with 0.8450 as the nearest bearish target before testing 0.8200 region. Immediate resistance at 0.8700 area. Break above that area could lead us into no trading zone but overall the main scenario remains to the downside.

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