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Tuesday, May 18, 2010
May-18 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.2234 but closed higher at 1.2395 in a volatile market. Price was traded lower around 1.2340 at the time I wrote this comment in Asian session as bullish pressure seems to lose some momentum. However on daily chart below we have a hammer candle stick formation, which is a bullish pattern. Of course it’s too early for a bullish reversal scenario and the main scenario remains to the downside, but I never ignore any reversal/correction signal. Immediate support at 1.2320. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2230/00 area. Initial resistance at 1.2465 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum and could be an early warning of potential significant bullish correction signaled by the hammer at least testing 1.2500 key resistance area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD also attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4251 but closed higher at 1.4473, also in a high volatile market. Like the EURUSD, we have a hammer candle stick pattern on daily chart indicating potential bullish reversal/correction. Unless price make a consistent move below 1.4400 area today, this bullish correction/reversal warning is real especially if price able to break above 1.4550 region testing at least 1.4600/30 area. However note that as long as price stays below the major trendline support the main scenario should remain bearish. Below 1.4400, further bearish pressure towards 1.4360 even 1.4251 is potential.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. Price still struggling around the trendline resistance without clear direction and still trapped in range area of 93.63 – 91.71 since May 10. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction. Break below 91.71 could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing the major trendline support. On the upside we need a consistent move above 93.63/75 area to continue the bullish scenario testing 94.70 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.1445 but closed lower at 1.1309. On daily chart below we have a shooting star candle stick pattern which is a bearish pattern. So even the main scenario remains bullish, the shooting star might indicate short term top at this phase with potential downside correction especially if price able to break below 1.1240 area today, testing 1.1175. On the other hand, break above 1.1380 could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.1445 even higher as 1.1595 remains potential bullish target this week.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 112.47 but closed higher at 114.75 in a volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term as direction is unclear so far. On h4 chart below we have two trendlines, support and resistance, and need a break on either side to see clearer direction. Breakout above the trendline resistance could trigger further bullish correction testing 116.50 area while breakdown below the trendline support could continue the major bearish scenario testing 110.66.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 131.10 but whipsawed to the upside and closed at 133.98 in a volatile market. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in an ascending triangle pattern indicating potential upside correction scenario especially if price breakout above the triangle testing 135.70 area. However note that the major scenario remains bearish with 129.89 area remains potential technical level to be tested especially if price violate the triangle to the downside as the minor bullish correction may fail.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a limited bearish momentum yesterday. Price slipped below 0.8700 area but rebound higher around 0.8739 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still in a bearish context. We need a consistent move below 0.8700 area to continue the bearish scenario testing 0.8612 – 0.8575 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8840/80 region.

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